Forsskålsymposiet 2020

Föreläsningen hålls på engelska.

After the end of the Cold War, the world went through a long period with a clear decline in the number of armed conflicts and the introduction of democratic institutions in many countries. The most recent year, however, this trend has turned. A small number of very lethal wars have broken out, and democracy has seen a decline in many countries. Will this negative trend continue into the future, or will the world take up again a development towards a more peaceful and democratic world? In this lecture, I will talk about some research projects that investigate these questions and present some scenarios for how the world will look at the end of the 21st century. Central in this work are five ’Shared Socio-economic Pathways’ that the climate research community use as future scenarios or storylines. I will use and discuss the projections for global population, education, and income that researchers have developed based on these scenarios, and present similar projections for how much internal armed conflict there will be according to a reasonable model, as well as some preliminary results for the democraticness of the world. Even under the most pessimistic SSPs, there are reasons for some optimism with respect to peace and democracy. I will discuss the data material that we may use to draw conclusions, as well as look at the assumptions required to believe these forecasts.

2020 ÅRS FORSSKÅLPANEL

Föreläsningen följs av ett panelsamtal under ledning av Maria Ripenberg, journalist.

Paneldeltagande är:

Margareta Wahlström, Ordförande Röda Korset
Anders Brännström, f.d. Generalmajor
Anna Jarstad, Professor vid Statsvetenskapliga institutionen, Uppsala universitet
Morten Kjaerum, Ordförande för Raoul Wallenberg Institute of Human Rights

Symposiet arrangeras via Zoom: https://uu-se.zoom.us/j/62568884588