Landslides can be predicted several months in advance
Cracks after the landslide in Preonzo, Switzerland, on 6 June 2012. By Gattoarturo - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=20175402
Landslides are difficult to predict and can have devastating consequences for both people and society. Now, a new study shows that the ground actually reveals its secrets well in advance – and that warning signs can be detected several months before disaster strikes.
The study, published in Science Advances, was led by researchers at the Department of Earth Sciences at Uppsala University together with colleagues in Switzerland. They have developed a new method for analysing small, episodic movements in landslides – movements that often precede a larger collapse.
“Our results show that small jolts in the ground are not random, but carry important information about how close a landslide is to collapsing. In the case of the Preonzo landslide in Switzerland, we could see clear warning signs one to two months before the collapse,” says Qinghua Lei, senior lecturer in geohydrology at the Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University.
The researchers combine both internal factors – such as cracking and material weakening – and external factors such as rain and snowmelt. The result is a completely new understanding of how landslides develop.
This knowledge could be crucial in strengthening disaster preparedness and giving authorities more time to act in the event of an impending landslide.
Read the study in Science Advances here
For more information: Contact Qinghua Lei, senior lecturer at the Department of Earth Sciences:
Email: qinghua.lei@geo.uu.se