Seminar: Martin Mattsson

Abstract:

What are the political consequences of setting ambitious targets and then failing to meet them? This paper studies this question in the context of air pollution in South Asia, which causes an estimated 1.3 million deaths annually. The Indian Government launched the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) with an ambitious aim to reduce air pollution by 40% across 131 cities in seven years. If successful, NCAP would be one of the most important environmental policies in history. We evaluate the effect of NCAP using a difference-in-differences approach that compares NCAP cities to cities not covered by NCAP, and find a precisely estimated zero effect. Using a survey experiment, we show that residents of NCAP cities are more satisfied with the government's actions when told about the ambitious targets. When we also provide information that NCAP has had no effect, their satisfaction decreases compared those just told about the targets, but there is no negative effect compared to the control group. These public opinion benefits can explain why the government sets unrealistic targets that it then fails to meet.