SPA Seminar: Influence of extreme events modeled by non-Gaussian process on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation stability

Abstract: How will extreme events due to human activities and climate change affect the oceanic thermohaline circulation is a key concern in climate predictions. The stability of the thermohaline circulation with respect to extreme events, such as fresh-water oscillations, greenhouse gas accumulations and collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, is examined using a conceptual stochastic Stommel two-compartment model. The extreme fluctuations are modeled by symmetric alpha-stable Levy motions whose pathways are cadlag functions with at most a countable number of jumps. The mean first passage time, escape probability and stochastic basin of attraction are used to perform the stability analysis of on (off) equilibrium states.

This is a seminar in our seminar series on Stochastic Pocesses and Applications (SPA).