Three Bachelor's Degree Project Presentations in Mathematics

Time: 10.15 - 11.00
Student: Emily Tse
Titel: Regression analysis on weather phenomena

Abstract: This thesis explores how four meteorological variables, dew point temperature, air pressure, visibility and total cloud coverage, influence air temperature. Three multiple linear regression models were fitted and compared using diagnostic plots and statistical measures.

To test the predictive power of the three models, the last 366 observations, corresponding to the year 1984, were removed. Then, using these observations and the models we examined before, three predictions of the air temperature were made.

Overall, this project offers us insight into how some key astronomical factors influence air temperature. By evaluating the predictive accuracy and the statistical measures, we could see the importance some variables have, but also the strength of statistical modeling when it comes to weather forecasts.

Time: 11.15 - 12.00
Student: Kasper Lindkvist
Titel: Predicting Health Conditions for Residence in Europe

Abstract: In this thesis, data from SHARE waves 7 and 9 are used with regression models to predict health conditions for Europeans. This is important for finding underlying causes for good or bad health in Europe and for finding interesting areas for further study in how or why people are healthy. Different logistic regression models with variables chosen using stepwise AIC or with lasso regularization are compared with each other and a generalized additive model. The performance of the models was very similar, with an equal AUC of 0.743 for all models except the model with lasso regularization, which had an AUC of 0.876 and also a 4% higher accuracy. Many variables were found not to be very important for predicting health, but memory and actlim, variables for good memory and if health had recently limited activities, were found to both have a significant impact.

Time: 13.15 - 14.00
Student: Simon Lindblom
Titel: Figure-8 solution to the three-body problem

Abstract: The three-body problem is concerned with describing the movement of three bodies in space under the influence of a force. This thesis presentation will cover parts of Chenciner and Montgomery's proof of the existence of the figure-8 solution to the three-body problem. This will include introducing the utilized shape space and excluding paths with collisions.