Alliances of Anarchy: Actor Constellations and Patterns of Electoral Violence

Project description

Elections are a cornerstone of democratic governance. Yet, in many countries elections are frequently marred by violence. When political actors use violence to steal elections, the lives and safety of citizens are threatened, and democratic practices undermined.

This project uncovers the determinants of electoral violence patterns over time and space, taking seriously the actors involved in the violence. The project disaggregates the actors involved in elections and investigates how different actor constellations – the combination of actors present and active during electoral periods – shape patterns of electoral violence. By placing focus on how electoral violence is co-produced by local and national actors, and how actor constellations are conditioned by contextual factors, the project unpacks actor-related dynamics that influence when, where, at what intensity, and in which form, violence unfolds.

The project will employ a subnational, comparative research design, with a focus on Africa (primarily Kenya and Côte d’Ivoire) and aims to utilize both qualitative and quantitative research approaches.

PUBLICATIONS

• Van Baalen, Sebastian, and Abel Gbala (2023).“Patterns of Electoral Violence during Côte d’Ivoire’s Third-Term Crisis.”African Affairs, 2023, online first. For a French translation see:“Modèles de Violence Électorale pendant la Crise du Troisième Mandat de la Côte d’Ivoire.”

RELATED PUBLICATIONS

• Van Baalen, Sebastian (2023).“Polls of Fear? Electoral Violence, Incumbent Strength, and Voter Turnout in Côte d’Ivoire.”Journal of Peace Research, online first.
• Fjelde Hanne, and Kristine Höglund (2022).“Introducing the Deadly Electoral Conflict Dataset (DECO).”Journal of Conflict Resolution 66(1): 162-185.
• Elfversson, Emma, Thao-Nguyen Ha and Kristine Höglund (2023).“The Urban-Rural Divide in Police Trust: Insights from Kenya.”Policing and Society, online first.
• Birch, Sarah, Ursula E Daxecker, and Kristine Höglund (2020).“Electoral Violence: An Introduction.”Journal of Peace Research 57(1): 3-14.
• Bjarnesen, Jesper and Sebastian van Baalen (2020). Ouattara’s Third-Term Bid Raises Old Fears: Risk of Violence in Côte d’Ivoire’s Upcoming Presidential Elections. NAI Policy Notes 2020:5. Uppsala: The Nordic Africa Institute.
• Brosché, Johan, Hanne Fjelde, and Kristine Höglund (2020).“Electoral Violence and the Legacy of Authoritarian Rule in Kenya and Zambia.”Journal of Peace Research 57(1): 111-125.
• Elfversson, Emma and Kristine Höglund (2019).“Violence in the City that Belongs to No One: Urban Distinctiveness and Interconnected Insecurities in Nairobi (Kenya).”Conflict, Security and Development 19(4): 347-370.
• Fjelde, Hanne and Kristine Höglund (2018). “Ethnic Politics and Elite Competition: The Roots of Electoral Violence in Kenya.”Violence in African Elections: Between Democracy and Big Man Politics. In M. Söderberg Kovacs and J. Bjarnesen (eds). London: Zed Books.
• Rød, Espen Geelmuyden (2019).“Fraud, Grievances, and Post-election Protests in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes.”Electoral Studies 58: 12-20.
• Rød, Espen Geelmuyden, Carl Henrik Knutsen, and Håvard Hegre (2019).“The Determinants of Democracy: A Sensitivity Analysis.”Public Choice 185: 1-25.
• Wig, Tore, and Espen Geelmuyden Rød (2016).“Cues to Coup Plotters: Elections as Coup Triggers in Dictatorships.”Journal of Conflict Resolution 60(5): 787-812.