The ideology without a name: The evolution of the Kremlin’s political discourse from 2012 to 2024

This lecture examines Kremlin ideology and considers its past and future role in Russia’s policies and behaviour. I begin by critiquing the existing literature on ideology in Russian politics. I make the case for using Hegelian imminent critique to understand the development of Putinism as a dialectical process. To provide an overview of the evolution of Kremlin ideology since 2012, I pay particular attention to two processes – securitization and culturalization – over three crucial phases (2014-2018; 2020-2022; 2022-2024). To provide context and a starting point to these post-2012 developments, I re-examine the core elements of the Kremlin’s “thin” ideology in the 2000’s and re-examine the historical significance of Putin’s decision to return to office in 2012. To structure the analysis of 2012-2022, I zoom in on three lines of negative interactions that led to discursive closure: (1) Russia’s diplomatic failure with the “political West”; (2) the perceived animosity of central and east European nationalism; (3) increased intolerance of domestic opposition groups and regime critics as “traitors to Russia”. Having unpacked the processes of ideological thickening, I examine the decision to launch the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine. Concluding that ideology was only one of the factors in play behind this, I finish by examining ideological change and continuity in the period since 24 February 2022, with a particular focus on specific actors engaged along three main lines of ideological activity and policy concerns.

Matthew Blackburn is a Senior Researcher in NUPI's Research Group on Russia, Asia and International Trade. His main research agenda addresses the politics of contemporary autocracies in Russia and Eurasia, including both domestic politics and interstate relations. He has researched contemporary autocratic legitimation and popular responses to state discourses, with a particular focus on how regimes mobilise on the ideational level and cope with the challenges of nationalist and populist opposition. He also researches subnational variation in Russian society and regional politics, and studies how contemporary authoritarian regimes evolve, alternating between periods of stabilisation, normalisation and mobilisation.

He is currently developing project proposals on comparative authoritarian politics, displacement and emigration, and new competition for influence among the former-Soviet states in light of the war in Ukraine.