The Authoritarian International: Learning, Adaptation, and Failure

Increasingly democratic states are being challenged by a resurgence in the number of autocracies. This presentation analyses a key aspect of this resurgence and the increased chances of autocratic survival in authoritarian learning. In analysing autocratic regimes in the post-Soviet space, I show the importance of learning and direct cooperation between these regimes in offering alternative models to democracy and developing best survival practices. What is occurring between autocracies is more than just mere copying. Rather there is direct dialogue, regular meetings and sharing of methods to increase the chances of survival in a collaborative manner. However, what happens when autocratic have a cognitive bias – or mind block – that makes learning the right lessons difficult? We contend that Ukraine has been a mind block for the Russian elite in Putin’s personalist autocracy. This has led to consistent mistakes and failure to learn the correct lessons over Ukraine that were a contributory factor to the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The mind block issue and regime longevity contribute to what is construed as the ivory tower syndrome, affecting a regime’s capacity to adapt. While autocracies are constantly adapting and cooperating with one another there are situations when there is an inability to learn, or consistently learn the wrong lessons. For Russia, we argue Ukraine is a mind block.

Stephen G. F. Hall is a Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Russian and Post-Soviet Politics. He completed his PhD in political science at the School of Slavonic and East European Studies at University College London Before joining Bath, Stephen was a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Cambridge and taught at the Higher School of Economics – National Research University, St. Petersburg. He has published extensively in Europe-Asia Studies, Problems of Post-Communism, East European Politics, Post-Communist Economies, Russian Politics, and the Journal of Eurasian Studies.