Juan Diego Duque-Salazar: Political Ambition in the Shadow of Violence: Elections, Gender and Political Machines in Colombia

Zoom link to the thesis defence

Abstract

In the context of election violence, why do some politicians withdraw from politics while others do not? Violent elections have long been a persistent challenge in developing democracies. Candidates must navigate these high-risk environments as they compete for office. Yet, while some politicians endure these threats and continue their careers, others exit politics. This dissertation explores this puzzle by examining why, when, and how election insecurity shapes the political ambition of candidates in Colombia. The dissertation presents a theoretical framework with three main components. First, election insecurity dampens the political ambition of candidates by increasing material and non-material campaign costs. Second, politicians embedded in political machines—informal political networks which provide campaign funding, security information, and protection—are less affected by election insecurity, a process I term the ‘bulletproofing effect’ of political machines. Third, this effect is gendered: women benefit more from machine support than men. As women often enter politics with fewer financial and network resources than men, the support of political machines levels the playing field, enhancing their ability to navigate violent campaigns. I provide evidence for these three arguments through a multi-method approach using novel quantitative and qualitative data of more than 9,000 survey responses of local politicians, more than 100 in-depth interviews with political elites, and field notes collected when observing political campaigns for the 2023 local elections in Colombia. Altogether, the study contributes to (i) our understanding of political ambition in violent settings, (ii) the role of informal political networks in enhancing the political resilience of candidates, and (iii) the gendered impacts of these networks for enhancing women’s political participation. Taken together, the findings have important implications for the challenges of inclusive democracies and for women’s political representation in violent settings.