Jens Ergon: Going Green at the End of the End of History: Multiple crises, backlash, and just climate transformations in Sweden

Abstract

The environmental pioneer Sweden has experienced a comprehensive rollback of climate policy. The Swedish backlash illustrate current trends. The climate crisis interacts with multiple social, economic, and political crises, raising fundamental questions about how to pursue sustainability transformations. This thesis develops a novel Polanyian-inspired understanding of climate transformations, and combines this with post-Keynesian macro-econometric modelling in order to understand the Swedish backlash, and how to advance just climate transformations in a context of multiple crises. The thesis shows that the Swedish backlash can be understood in terms of countermovements and as part of a wider backlash to neoliberal globalisation. Neoliberalised financial and welfare regimes, and weak inclusion of civil society, are identified as key factors behind the Swedish backlash, limiting attempts to pursue just climate transformations, and benefitting the rise of climate denying countermovements. However, the backlash has also contributed to potential alternatives, by linking civil society interests in just climate transformations with industrial interests in decarbonisation. Elaborated as a green Swedish model, this includes fiscal reforms and a more interventionist state, investing in infrastructure and green transitions, but also renewed welfare arrangements, distributing the costs and benefits of climate transformations. The modelling results show that such policy packages can combine advanced climate action with reduced inequality and economic growth. Packages combining raised fuel taxes with recycling to income support and green subsidies, can enhance mitigation, reduce inequality and benefit the economy. Meanwhile, if progressive taxes, such as on capital incomes, are used to finance redistribution, green subsidies, and public welfare, emissions and inequality can be reduced considerably, while boosting employment and economic growth. Deficit funding of green investments widen the options further. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and pressure towards rearmament are prompting changes in Sweden’s financial regime. The thesis concludes by arguing that this opens for structural change in different directions: from authoritarian, investing in rearmament but continuing welfare austerity and climate policy rollback, to progressive, moving towards a green Swedish model and investing broadly in infrastructure, public welfare and just climate transformations. While Sweden is a specific case, the concepts and conclusions are arguably of wider interest.