The number of fatalities in conflicts decreased in 2018

Our data has a connection to research but also to decision makers and those who work practically with international issues, says Research Coordinator Therese Pettersson.

We are still compiling the information, but most of the indications suggest that the death toll is continuing to decrease. Syria has driven this trend, and we have seen a stable decline there since 2014. In all likelihood, the death toll will be lower than it has been since the Arab Spring started properly. There has been a significant decrease in Iraq and Syria.

Is there also a opposite trend?
Yes, there are other countries where the number of fatalities is increasing, primarily Afghanistan. In 2018, Afghanistan has surpassed Syria in the number of fatalities caused to armed violence. In actual fact it has steadily increased since international forces retreated. The Afghan forces were then to have taken over responsibility for security, but this has been problematic. They are struggling due to problems such as defection, but also because it is a large country with inaccessible terrain. There are areas where the government does not traditionally have a strong foundation in society, where it is very easy for the Taliban to take control.

Why is it so difficult to resolve this conflict?
As in the other large conflicts in Syria and Yemen, there are a lot of external parties who are there and are getting involved. The parties to the conflict have support from other countries that have a presence with actual forces on the ground and those that have interests in the conflict. Research shows that this type of conflict with external involvement becomes bloodier and more prolonged. Partly because resources are provided that allow the fighting to become more intense and prolonged, but also partly because it becomes increasingly difficult to resolve the conflict the more interests need to be considered.

But the death toll has gone down in Syria?
Yes it has, but what you need to take into consideration is that it has gone down because Russia came in very actively with great force on the side of the Syrian government, Assad's side. They have simply suppressed all resistance, even though there are still some areas that are controlled by rebels. While it is of course positive that the death toll is decreasing, it comes at the price of the country reverting back to a dictatorial regime. That is important to remember when you see that the intensity of the conflict has decreased.

In purely geographical terms, where are there the largest number of conflicts at the moment?
We have some conflicts in the northern half of Africa, in the Middle East and Central Asia. That is where the majority of conflicts are today. Previously, there were a lot of independence conflicts in Africa, and Latin America was also very conflict prone the 1970s and 80s. Generally speaking, there are currently no conflicts, even though there are some smaller conflicts in e.g. Colombia. So the geographical conflict centre has moved over time.

In June, you will be presenting the final report on conflicts in 2018 in the Journal of Peace Research. At the same time, all of the data is being made available in the UCDP database. Who uses your data?
They are journalists, students and interested members of the public. Another important group are researchers who conduct research into all possible aspects of violence and conflict, e.g. the connection to climate change and income inequality. We are also used by various international organisations within the UN family such as the World Bank. We are included in the World Development Index as well as in the index Global Burden of Disease, which is heavily used within health research. So our data has a connection to research but also to decision makers and those who work practically with international issues.