Cooperate or compete? Potentials and perils of deploying AI for International Water Dispute Management (AI-Water)

Time period:

1 December 2025 – 30 November 2029

Project leader:

Ashok Swain

Project member:

Stefan Döring, Florian Krampe, Susanne Schmeier, Kyungmee Kim

Funder:

Swedish Research Council

Type of award:

Project grant

Total funding:

6,780,000 SEK

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a transformative force in global environmental governance, particularly in the domain of international water dispute management. Adaptations of AI tools into water negotiations also raise concerns regarding data manipulation, disinformation, and politicization. This AI-Water project examines the institutional, political, and peace implications of AI in international water dispute management. Focusing on key river basins, including the Euphrates, Nile, and Danube, the project explores how AI tools influence water governance decisions and impact cooperation and conflict dynamics. Additionally, the project delves into the impact of AI tools on international water conflict and cooperation, existing legal agreements and institutional framework, and the inclusion of diverse water user actors in water negotiations. Using a multi-method and interdisciplinary approach, the research combines theories from international relations, environmental peace, and conflict studies to assess the potential consequences of AI in fostering sustainable and peaceful water management. With a team of leading researchers in this field, the AI-Water project responds to a critical social challenge and addresses the consequences of digitalization in focus on global water governance. The project has a strong societal engagement component, emphasising communications with diplomats, technical experts, and various water user groups.