Patronage in Peril: The war in Ukraine as a gamechanger for the Eurasian de facto states

The break-up of the Soviet Union led to the emergence of several de facto states. Despite their lack of international recognition, these entities established something akin to semi-permanent statehood. However, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 cut short this relative success of post-Soviet secessionist state building. At that time, Moscow served as the patron—or, in the case of Nagorno-Karabakh, the patron of the patron—of the secessionists in all six Eurasian de facto states. 3.5 years into the war, three of these states have ceased to exist, while the remaining three struggle to navigate the new geopolitical landscape. In his presentation, Blakkisrud explores whether Moscow is still able to provide the necessary support to uphold their existence and whether the de facto states might seek alternative alliances in light of Russia's diminished role and credibility as a patron.

Helge Blakkisrud is an Associate Professor of Russian Area Studies at the University of Oslo, Norway, and a Senior Researcher at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. His research interests include nation-building, nationalism, and national identity in Russia and Eurasia. Blakkisrud has published several books and edited volumes, including most recently Political Legitimacy and Traditional Values in Putin’s Russia (Edinburgh University Press, 2025), co-edited with Pål Kolstø.