The willingness to migrate has decreased in Russia
Illustration: Mostphotos
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there was an expectation in the West that many Russians would flee the country. However, this has not been the case. A new report from Delmi reveals that the willingness to migrate in Russia has instead decreased as a direct consequence of the war.
Oscar Erixson. Photo: Mikael Wallerstedt
The report, War Policies and Migration Aspirations in Russia, is authored by Oscar Erixson, Associate Professor in Economics at the Institute for Housing and Urban Research (IBF), Mikael Elinder, Associate Professor in Economics at the Department of Economics, and Olle Hammar, Assistant Professor in Economics at Linnaeus University and researcher at the Institute for Futures Studies.
The report is based on data from the world's largest survey, the Gallup World Poll. The researchers analyzed responses from 30,000 individuals in Russia between 2008 and 2023, focusing on questions measuring migration aspirations, political opinions, and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. The analysis centers on the war's impact and how changes in political conditions, including support for the Russian government, have influenced people's desire to leave the country.
The report concludes that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has led to a significant decrease in Russians' desire to emigrate to other countries. According to the researchers, several factors may explain this decline. In wartime, support for a country and its leaders typically increases, and this has been observed in Russia as well. Nationalist sentiments, restrictions on travel to other countries, and increased support for the Russian leadership have likely diminished the overall desire to leave the country. Many citizens now view Russia as a better place to live, particularly young, male, highly educated, and employed individuals.
"The survey also shows that interest in migrating to Western countries has decreased. Previously, Russians listed Germany and the United States as top destinations. After the invasion, however, preferences have shifted toward non-Western countries such as China and Turkey", says Oscar Erixson.
