Gabriele Messori
Professor at Uppsala University Conflicting Objectives Research Nexus (UUniCORN)
- Visiting address:
- MTC-huset, Dag Hammarskjölds väg 14B, 1 tr
752 37 Uppsala - Postal address:
- Akademiska sjukhuset
751 85 Uppsala
Professor in Meteorology at Department of Earth Sciences; Program for Air, Water and Landscape Sciences; Meteorology
- Telephone:
- +46 18 471 25 88
- E-mail:
- gabriele.messori@geo.uu.se
- Visiting address:
- Geocentrum, Villavägen 16
752 36 Uppsala - Postal address:
- Villavägen 16
752 36 UPPSALA
- Academic merits:
- Docent
Short presentation
My main research interests are physical drivers of extreme weather and extreme weather impacts. I use a range of approaches, including dynamical systems theory, machine learning and other statistical analyses. Other research interests include meridional energy transport in the atmosphere and large-scale atmospheric dynamics.
Keywords
- extreme weather events
- atmosphere
- climate science
- windstorms
- heatwaves
- cold spells
- weather forecasts
- climate impacts
Biography
Gabriele Messori obtained his M. Sci. in Theoretical Physics from Imperial College London in 2010 and his Ph. D. in Atmospheric Physics, always from Imperial College, in January 2014. He has since worked as post-doctoral researcher and research scientist at the Department of Meteorology of Stockholm University, as research scientist at the UK Met Office, and has been visiting scientist at the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement in Paris.
He joined the Department of Earth Sciences in Uppsala University in 2018.
Research
For an updated publication list, see here: https://gmessori.eu/about/
For a list of projects I am involved in, see here: https://gmessori.eu/research/
Publications
Recent publications
Part of Environmental Research Letters, 2025
- DOI for How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe
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Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic
Part of Earth System Dynamics, p. 169-187, 2025
- DOI for Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic
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Part of Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, p. 5518-5534, 2024
- DOI for Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes
- Download full text (pdf) of Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes
Indo-Pacific regional extremes aggravated by changes in tropical weather patterns
Part of Nature Geoscience, p. 979-+, 2024
- DOI for Indo-Pacific regional extremes aggravated by changes in tropical weather patterns
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The Dynamical Footprint of Year-Round North American Weather Regimes
Part of Geophysical Research Letters, 2024
- DOI for The Dynamical Footprint of Year-Round North American Weather Regimes
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All publications
Articles in journal
Part of Environmental Research Letters, 2025
- DOI for How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe
- Download full text (pdf) of How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe
Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic
Part of Earth System Dynamics, p. 169-187, 2025
- DOI for Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic
- Download full text (pdf) of Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic
Part of Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, p. 5518-5534, 2024
- DOI for Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes
- Download full text (pdf) of Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes
Indo-Pacific regional extremes aggravated by changes in tropical weather patterns
Part of Nature Geoscience, p. 979-+, 2024
- DOI for Indo-Pacific regional extremes aggravated by changes in tropical weather patterns
- Download full text (pdf) of Indo-Pacific regional extremes aggravated by changes in tropical weather patterns
The Dynamical Footprint of Year-Round North American Weather Regimes
Part of Geophysical Research Letters, 2024
- DOI for The Dynamical Footprint of Year-Round North American Weather Regimes
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ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate
Part of Weather and Climate Dynamics, p. 959-983, 2024
- DOI for ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate
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Climatology and trends of concurrent temperature extremes in the global extratropics
Part of Earth System Dynamics, p. 1207-1225, 2024
- DOI for Climatology and trends of concurrent temperature extremes in the global extratropics
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Simulating the Western North America heatwave of 2021 with analogue importance sampling
Part of Weather and Climate Extremes, 2024
- DOI for Simulating the Western North America heatwave of 2021 with analogue importance sampling
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The perfect storm?: Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa
Part of Earth System Dynamics, p. 429-466, 2024
- DOI for The perfect storm?: Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa
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Windstorm losses in Europe: What to gain from damage datasets
Part of Weather and Climate Extremes, 2024
- DOI for Windstorm losses in Europe: What to gain from damage datasets
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Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic
Part of Weather and Climate Dynamics, p. 821-837, 2024
- DOI for Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic
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Part of Weather and Climate Dynamics, p. 997-1012, 2024
- DOI for A linear assessment of barotropic Rossby wave propagation in different background flow configurations
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Mid-Holocene climate at mid-latitudes: assessing the impact of Saharan greening
Part of Climate of the Past, p. 1735-1759, 2024
- DOI for Mid-Holocene climate at mid-latitudes: assessing the impact of Saharan greening
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Part of Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), 2024
Physics-Inspired Adaptions to Low-Parameter Neural Network Weather Forecast Systems
Part of Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems (AIES), 2024
- DOI for Physics-Inspired Adaptions to Low-Parameter Neural Network Weather Forecast Systems
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Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events
Part of Physical review. E, 2024
- DOI for Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events
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Part of Geoscientific Model Development, p. 7915-7962, 2024
- DOI for Do data-driven models beat numerical models in forecasting weather extremes?: A comparison of IFS HRES, Pangu-Weather, and GraphCast
- Download full text (pdf) of Do data-driven models beat numerical models in forecasting weather extremes?: A comparison of IFS HRES, Pangu-Weather, and GraphCast
Part of Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, 2024
- DOI for Synoptic-Scale Extreme Variability of Winter Antarctic Sea-Ice Concentration and Its Link to Southern Ocean Extratropical Cyclones
- Download full text (pdf) of Synoptic-Scale Extreme Variability of Winter Antarctic Sea-Ice Concentration and Its Link to Southern Ocean Extratropical Cyclones
Part of Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2024
- DOI for A Quantile Generalized Additive Approach for Compound Climate Extremes: Pan-Atlantic Extremes as a Case Study
- Download full text (pdf) of A Quantile Generalized Additive Approach for Compound Climate Extremes: Pan-Atlantic Extremes as a Case Study
Part of Environmental Research Letters, 2024
- DOI for Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018-2019 drought in Germany
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The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence
Part of Earth System Dynamics, p. 737-765, 2023
- DOI for The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence
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The global atmospheric energy transport analysed by a wavelength-based scale separation
Part of Weather and Climate Dynamics, p. 1-17, 2023
- DOI for The global atmospheric energy transport analysed by a wavelength-based scale separation
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Speculative Political Ecologies: (re)imagining urban futures of climate extremes
Part of Journal of Political Ecology, 2023
- DOI for Speculative Political Ecologies: (re)imagining urban futures of climate extremes
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Predicting the Future: How Does a Weather Forecast Work?
Part of Frontiers for Young Minds, 2023
- DOI for Predicting the Future: How Does a Weather Forecast Work?
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Part of Climate Dynamics, p. 229-253, 2023
- DOI for A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data: the case study of storm Alex 2020
- Download full text (pdf) of A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data: the case study of storm Alex 2020
A Joint Perspective on North American and Euro‐Atlantic Weather Regimes
Part of Geophysical Research Letters, 2023
- DOI for A Joint Perspective on North American and Euro‐Atlantic Weather Regimes
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Recent Increase in a Recurrent Pan-Atlantic Wave Pattern Driving Concurrent Wintertime Extremes
Part of Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), 2023
- DOI for Recent Increase in a Recurrent Pan-Atlantic Wave Pattern Driving Concurrent Wintertime Extremes
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Extreme Surface Energy Budget Anomalies in the High Arctic in Winter
Part of Journal of Climate, p. 3591-3609, 2023
- DOI for Extreme Surface Energy Budget Anomalies in the High Arctic in Winter
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Part of Climate Dynamics, 2023
Multiple Large‐Scale Dynamical Pathways for Pan–Atlantic Compound Cold and Windy Extremes
Part of Geophysical Research Letters, 2023
- DOI for Multiple Large‐Scale Dynamical Pathways for Pan–Atlantic Compound Cold and Windy Extremes
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Part of Earth System Dynamics, p. 241-242, 2023
- DOI for Editorial: Global warming is due to an enhanced greenhouse effect, and anthropogenic heat emissions currently play a negligible role at the global scale
- Download full text (pdf) of Editorial: Global warming is due to an enhanced greenhouse effect, and anthropogenic heat emissions currently play a negligible role at the global scale
Part of Weather and Climate Extremes, 2023
- DOI for Modulation of North Atlantic extratropical cyclones and extreme weather in Europe during North American cold spells
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On Pan-Atlantic cold, wet and windy compound extremes
Part of Weather and Climate Extremes, 2023
- DOI for On Pan-Atlantic cold, wet and windy compound extremes
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Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave
Part of Environmental Research Letters, 2023
- DOI for Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave
- Download full text (pdf) of Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave
Dynamical footprints of hurricanes in the tropical dynamics
Part of Chaos, 2023
Part of Geophysical Research Letters, 2023
- DOI for On the Systematic Occurrence of Compound Cold Spells in North America and Wet or Windy Extremes in Europe
- Download full text (pdf) of On the Systematic Occurrence of Compound Cold Spells in North America and Wet or Windy Extremes in Europe
Part of Journal of Climate, p. 7657-7674, 2023
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe
Part of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2023
- DOI for Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe
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Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe
Part of Environmental Research Letters, 2023
- DOI for Persistent anomalies of the North Atlantic jet stream and associated surface extremes over Europe
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Statistical performance of local attractor dimension estimators in non-Axiom A dynamical systems
Part of Chaos, 2023
- DOI for Statistical performance of local attractor dimension estimators in non-Axiom A dynamical systems
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Part of Earth and Space Science, 2023
- DOI for High-Resolution Thermal Imaging in the Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone: Skin Temperature Heterogeneity and Effects on Heat Fluxes
- Download full text (pdf) of High-Resolution Thermal Imaging in the Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone: Skin Temperature Heterogeneity and Effects on Heat Fluxes
Unprecedented droughts are expected to exacerbate urban inequalities in Southern Africa
Part of Nature Climate Change, p. 98-105, 2023
A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021
Part of Weather and Climate Dynamics, p. 1311-1340, 2022
- DOI for A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021
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Part of Weather and Climate Dynamics, p. 1037-1062, 2022
- DOI for Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers
- Download full text (pdf) of Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers
Part of Environmental Research Letters, 2022
- DOI for An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia
- Download full text (pdf) of An NAO-dominated mode of atmospheric circulation drives large decadal changes in wintertime surface climate and snow mass over Eurasia
The life cycle of meridional heat flux peaks
Part of Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, p. 1113-1126, 2022
- DOI for The life cycle of meridional heat flux peaks
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Communicating Properties of Changes in Lagged Weather Forecasts
Part of Weather and forecasting, p. 125-142, 2022
- DOI for Communicating Properties of Changes in Lagged Weather Forecasts
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Dynamics and predictability of cold spells over the Eastern Mediterranean
Part of Climate Dynamics, p. 2047-2064, 2022
- DOI for Dynamics and predictability of cold spells over the Eastern Mediterranean
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Atmospheric jet stream variability reflects vegetation activity in Europe
Part of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2022
- DOI for Atmospheric jet stream variability reflects vegetation activity in Europe
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Part of Geophysical Research Letters, 2022
- DOI for Drought legacy in sub‐seasonal vegetation state and sensitivity to climate over the Northern Hemisphere
- Download full text (pdf) of Drought legacy in sub‐seasonal vegetation state and sensitivity to climate over the Northern Hemisphere
Part of Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2022
- DOI for Developing Representative Impact Scenarios From Climate Projection Ensembles, With Application to UKCP18 and EURO‐CORDEX Precipitation
- Download full text (pdf) of Developing Representative Impact Scenarios From Climate Projection Ensembles, With Application to UKCP18 and EURO‐CORDEX Precipitation
Part of Weather and Climate Dynamics, p. 1215-1236, 2022
- DOI for Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North American weather regimes and cold spells
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Part of Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 2022
Disaster risk reduction and the limits of truisms: Improving the knowledge and practice interface
Part of International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2022
- DOI for Disaster risk reduction and the limits of truisms: Improving the knowledge and practice interface
- Download full text 1 (pdf) of Disaster risk reduction and the limits of truisms: Improving the knowledge and practice interface
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Part of Climate of the Past, p. 1243-1271, 2021
- DOI for The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene
- Download full text (pdf) of The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene
Technical note: Characterising and comparing different palaeoclimates with dynamical systems theory
Part of Climate of the Past, p. 545-563, 2021
- DOI for Technical note: Characterising and comparing different palaeoclimates with dynamical systems theory
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Part of Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS), 2021
- DOI for Compound Climate Events and Extremes in the Midlatitudes Dynamics, Simulation, and Statistical Characterization
- Download full text (pdf) of Compound Climate Events and Extremes in the Midlatitudes Dynamics, Simulation, and Statistical Characterization
Scenarios of Human Responses to Unprecedented Social-Environmental Extreme Events
Part of Earth's Future, 2021
Do Atlantic‐European weather regimes physically exist?
Part of Geophysical Research Letters, 2021
- DOI for Do Atlantic‐European weather regimes physically exist?
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A dynamical systems characterization of atmospheric jet regimes
Part of Earth System Dynamics, p. 233-251, 2021
- DOI for A dynamical systems characterization of atmospheric jet regimes
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Part of Monthly Weather Review, p. 1637-1650, 2021
Part of Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, 2021
- DOI for Evaluating the scientific credentials of the supporters of public petitions denying anthropogenic climate change
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Part of Earth's Future, 2021
- DOI for Is A Common Goal A False Hope in Convergence Research?: Opportunities and Challenges of International Convergence Research to Address Arctic Change
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Part of Global and Planetary Change, 2021
Robust Worst-Case Scenarios from Ensemble Forecasts
Part of Weather and forecasting, p. 1357-1373, 2021
Part of Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences, 2021
- DOI for Early Growing Season Anomalies in Vegetation Activity Determine the Large-Scale Climate-Vegetation Coupling in Europe
- Download full text (pdf) of Early Growing Season Anomalies in Vegetation Activity Determine the Large-Scale Climate-Vegetation Coupling in Europe
Ensemble Methods for Neural Network-Based Weather Forecasts
Part of Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2021
A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean
Part of Earth System Dynamics, p. 133-149, 2021
- DOI for A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean
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Compound warm-dry and cold-wet events over the Mediterranean
Part of Earth System Dynamics, p. 793-805, 2020
- DOI for Compound warm-dry and cold-wet events over the Mediterranean
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Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale
Part of Earth System Dynamics, p. 251-266, 2020
- DOI for Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale
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A spatial model for return values of warm extremes in the high Arctic
Part of Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, p. 3865-3876, 2020
- DOI for A spatial model for return values of warm extremes in the high Arctic
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Part of Climate Dynamics, p. 2187-2201, 2020
- DOI for Diagnosing concurrent drivers of weather extremes: application to warm and cold days in North America
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The dynamics of cyclones in the twentyfirst century: the Eastern Mediterranean as an example
Part of Climate Dynamics, p. 561-574, 2020
Part of Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, p. 1636-1650, 2020
- DOI for Dynamical systems theory sheds new light on compound climate extremes in Europe and Eastern North America
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Part of Journal of Climate, p. 5565-5587, 2020
Sampling Hyperspheres via Extreme Value Theory: Implications for Measuring Attractor Dimensions
Part of Journal of statistical physics, p. 1698-1717, 2020
The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability
Part of Nature Communications, 2019
- DOI for The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability
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Part of Geophysical Research Letters, p. 7602-7613, 2019
Part of International Journal of Climatology, p. 1927-1939, 2019
Minimal dynamical systems model of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data
Part of Earth System Dynamics, p. 555-567, 2019
- DOI for Minimal dynamical systems model of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data
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How Global Warming Changes the Difficulty of Synoptic Weather Forecasting
Part of Geophysical Research Letters, p. 2931-2939, 2019
Generalization properties of feed-forward neural networks trained on Lorenz systems
Part of Nonlinear processes in geophysics, p. 381-399, 2019
- DOI for Generalization properties of feed-forward neural networks trained on Lorenz systems
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Part of Science Advances, 2019
- DOI for A new dynamical systems perspective on atmospheric predictability: Eastern Mediterranean weather regimes as a case study
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Part of Geoscientific Model Development, p. 2797-2809, 2019
- DOI for Weather and climate forecasting with neural networks: using general circulation models (GCMs) with different complexity as a study ground
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Selective ensemble mean technique for severe European windstorms
Part of Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, p. 376-385, 2019
Effects of an Explosive Polar Cyclone Crossing the Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone
Part of Geophysical Research Letters, p. 5948-5958, 2019
- DOI for Effects of an Explosive Polar Cyclone Crossing the Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone
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Articles, review/survey
Advances and prospects of deep learning for medium-range extreme weather forecasting
Part of Geoscientific Model Development, p. 2347-2358, 2024
- DOI for Advances and prospects of deep learning for medium-range extreme weather forecasting
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Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact‐based forecasting of droughts
Part of WIREs Water, 2024
- DOI for Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact‐based forecasting of droughts
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Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi-Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview
Part of Earth's Future, 2024
- DOI for Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi-Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview
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Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean
Part of Earth System Dynamics, p. 749-777, 2022
- DOI for Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean
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The Greening of the Sahara: Past Changes and Future Implications
Part of One Earth, p. 235-250, 2020
- DOI for The Greening of the Sahara: Past Changes and Future Implications
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Climate drivers of the terrestrial carbon cycle variability in Europe
Part of Environmental Research Letters, 2019
- DOI for Climate drivers of the terrestrial carbon cycle variability in Europe
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