How to predict future energy demand
Lukas Dahlström is a doctoral student at the Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering. Photo: Daniel Olsson
When Lukas Dahlström returned to Gotland to start his doctoral programme at the GRASS graduate school, it was like coming full circle. He grew up on the island and has long been interested in science and sustainable development. So the opportunity seemed timely.
“Coming from Gotland as I do makes it extra exciting to study sustainability issues right here. For one thing, I may have more insight into the situation on Gotland, and for another, perhaps I care a little more about the island’s future,” says Dahlström.
His research focuses on estimating and simulating energy demand in buildings on a larger geographical scale. The aim is to provide municipalities, authorities and researchers with more accurate models of how energy is used and how its use can be changed.
“My research focuses primarily on how much energy we use. The single largest item is heating in buildings,” says Dahlström. “There is great scope to reduce energy consumption in this area.”
Gotland as a case study
Dahlström only uses open-access data, such as maps, laser data and energy performance certificates, and has developed a methodology that can be adapted to many different areas. The large amounts of data also pose practical challenges.
“You really have to go through a tremendous amount of data first. Often the data is not of high quality to begin with, so you have to write script to eliminate inaccuracies.”
Visualisation of simulation calculations for parts of Visby, showing where energy-saving solutions could be implemented.
Gotland also serves as a well-defined case study. As an island and a region in its own right, it has clear geographical boundaries, making it easier to collect and compare statistics.
“It makes comparisons very easy. It’s much more difficult in, say, Uppsala, where the boundary of the city is less clearly defined than that of an island.”
The model could be used when municipalities want to test future scenarios, to give one concrete example.
“Say a municipality wants to introduce a new policy or establish a new industry. The model allows them to see the actual impact on energy use and the patterns that arise in different seasons.”
Cultural heritage buildings can be made more energy efficient
In a sub-project, Dahlström has simulated how cultural heritage buildings can be made more energy efficient while minimising the risk of damage to their cultural value. The results show how measures can strike a balance between conservation and energy saving and how different choices affect future needs.
The doctoral education at GRASS has also provided important interdisciplinary perspectives.
“It’s great to be a group of PhD students working on sustainable development in different ways. There’s a lot of discussion about perspectives and approaches, not just details and programming.”
The next step is to make the models even more realistic. The vision is clear: to provide society with tools that help in energy and sustainability decisions.
“In the best case, we can predict future energy use and choose the measures that will make the biggest difference.”
Daniel Olsson
New thesis
Lukas Dahlström: Building Sustainability in Regional Energy Transition: Large-Scale Energy Demand Modelling Considering Socio-Economic Factors and Heritage Values.