Håvard Hegre
Researcher at Department of Peace and Conflict Research
- Telephone:
- +46 18 471 23 72
- Mobile phone:
- +46 70 964 62 00
- E-mail:
- Havard.Hegre@pcr.uu.se
- Visiting address:
- Gamla Torget 3, 1tr
753 20 Uppsala - Postal address:
- Box 514
751 20 UPPSALA
Download contact information for Håvard Hegre at Department of Peace and Conflict Research
- CV:
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Short presentation
Research interests
From January 2017, I have been directing ViEWS - a project developing a political Violence Early-Warning System.
My other research projects are presented in my external webpage: http://havardhegre.net
- The relationships between development, democratization, and peace
- Forecasting armed conflict
- Economic consequences of armed conflict
- Measurement of democracy
- Climate change and armed conflict
See http://havardhegre.net, and ResearcherID for supplementary information.
Biography
Dag Hammarskjöld Professor of Peace and Conflict Research
Research Professor, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
Dr. philos in Political Science, University of Oslo (November 2004)
Member of Editorial Board of International Studies Review, Journal of Peace Research, Political Science Research and Methods, Research and Politics
Vice-President, International Studies Association (2018-19)

Publications
Recent publications
Predicting armed conflict using protest data
Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 3-20, 2025
- DOI for Predicting armed conflict using protest data
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The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
Part of World Development, 2025
- DOI for The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
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A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems
Part of International Journal of Forecasting, p. 96-112, 2024
- DOI for A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems
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Early Warning and Predictive Analytic Systems in Conflict Contexts: Insights from the Field
Part of Civil Wars, p. 401-429, 2024
The 'conflict trap' reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways
Part of Environmental Research Letters, 2023
- DOI for The 'conflict trap' reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways
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All publications
Articles in journal
Predicting armed conflict using protest data
Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 3-20, 2025
- DOI for Predicting armed conflict using protest data
- Download full text (pdf) of Predicting armed conflict using protest data
A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems
Part of International Journal of Forecasting, p. 96-112, 2024
- DOI for A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems
- Download full text (pdf) of A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems
Early Warning and Predictive Analytic Systems in Conflict Contexts: Insights from the Field
Part of Civil Wars, p. 401-429, 2024
The 'conflict trap' reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways
Part of Environmental Research Letters, 2023
- DOI for The 'conflict trap' reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways
- Download full text (pdf) of The 'conflict trap' reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways
United they stand: findings from an escalation prediction competition
Part of International Interactions, p. 860-896, 2022
- DOI for United they stand: findings from an escalation prediction competition
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Lessons From an Escalation Prediction Competition
Part of International Interactions, p. 521-554, 2022
- DOI for Lessons From an Escalation Prediction Competition
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Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation
Part of Conservation Letters, 2021
- DOI for Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation
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ViEWS(2020): Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 599-611, 2021
- DOI for ViEWS(2020): Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
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Can We Predict Armed Conflict?: How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality
Part of International Studies Quarterly, p. 660-668, 2021
- DOI for Can We Predict Armed Conflict?: How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality
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Synergies and Trade-Offs in Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals
Part of Sustainability, 2020
- DOI for Synergies and Trade-Offs in Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals
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Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset
Part of Research & Politics, p. 1-8, 2020
- DOI for Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset
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The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis
Part of Public Choice, p. 87-111, 2020
- DOI for The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis
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Civil Society and the Democratic Peace
Part of Journal of Conflict Resolution, p. 32-62, 2020
- DOI for Civil Society and the Democratic Peace
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Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations
Part of Journal of Politics, p. 215-232, 2019
ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system
Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 155-174, 2019
- DOI for ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system
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Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap: A dynamic simulation approach
Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 243-261, 2017
- DOI for Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap: A dynamic simulation approach
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Introduction: Forecasting in peace research
Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 113-124, 2017
Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways
Part of Environmental Research Letters, 2016
- DOI for Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways
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Democratization and civil conflict
Part of APSA-CD, p. 4-7, 2016
Updated Data on Institutions and Elections 1960-2012: Presenting the IAEP dataset version 2.0
Part of Research & Politics, 2015
Governance and Conflict Relapse
Part of Journal of Conflict Resolution, p. 984-1016, 2015
One effect to rule them all?: A comment on climate and conflict
Part of Climatic Change, p. 391-397, 2014
Political Corruption and Institutional Stability
Part of Studies in comparative international development, p. 267-299, 2014
Articles, review/survey
The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
Part of World Development, 2025
- DOI for The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
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Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 159-172, 2014
Chapters in book
Global, state, and individual security in quantitative conflict research
Part of Transformations of Security Studies, p. 190-215, Routledge, 2016
Regime Type and Political Transition in Civil War
Part of Routledge Handbook of Civil Wars, p. 145-156, Routledge, 2013
Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations 2010-2035
Part of Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, p. 325-332, Springer, 2011