Håvard Hegre

The Underreported Death Toll of Wars: A Probabilistic Reassessment From a Survey with UCDP Coders

Vesco, Paola; Randahl, David; Hegre, Håvard; Högbladh, Stina et al.

Part of Journal of Conflict Resolution, p. 1499-1521, 2026

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Introduction to peace and the sustainable development goals

Döring, Stefan; Petrova, Kristina; Hegre, Håvard

Part of The Elgar Companion to Peace and the Sustainable Development Goals, p. 1-11, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2026

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The Elgar Companion to Peace and the Sustainable Development Goals

Döring, Stefan; Petrova, Kristina; Hegre, Håvard

Abbaye de Maredsous, 2026

Revisiting "A Structural Theory of Imperialism"

Hegre, Håvard; Kim, Soo Yeon

Part of Journal of Global Security Studies, 2026

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Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict

Randahl, David; Williams, Jonathan P.; Hegre, Håvard

Part of Political Analysis, p. 96-108, 2026

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The Underreported Death Toll of Wars: A Probabilistic Reassessment From a Survey with UCDP Coders

Vesco, Paola; Randahl, David; Hegre, Håvard; Högbladh, Stina et al.

Part of Journal of Conflict Resolution, p. 1499-1521, 2026

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Revisiting "A Structural Theory of Imperialism"

Hegre, Håvard; Kim, Soo Yeon

Part of Journal of Global Security Studies, 2026

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Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict

Randahl, David; Williams, Jonathan P.; Hegre, Håvard

Part of Political Analysis, p. 96-108, 2026

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Forecasting electoral violence

Randahl, David; Leis, Maxine; Gåsste, Tim; Fjelde, Hanne et al.

Part of International Journal of Forecasting, p. 602-615, 2026

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The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty

Hegre, Håvard; Vesco, Paola; Colaresi, Michael; Vestby, Jonas et al.

Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 2070-2087, 2025

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Predicting armed conflict using protest data

Geelmuyden Rød, Espen; Hegre, Håvard; Leis, Maxine

Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 3-20, 2025

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A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems

Geelmuyden Rød, Espen; Gåsste, Tim; Hegre, Håvard

Part of International Journal of Forecasting, p. 96-112, 2024

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Early Warning and Predictive Analytic Systems in Conflict Contexts: Insights from the Field

Lynam, Timothy; Zapata, Mollie; Hegre, Håvard; Bell, Curtis et al.

Part of Civil Wars, p. 401-429, 2024

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The 'conflict trap' reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways

Petrova, Kristina; Olafsdottir, Gudlaug; Hegre, Håvard; Gilmore, Elisabeth A.

Part of Environmental Research Letters, 2023

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United they stand: findings from an escalation prediction competition

Vesco, Paola; Hegre, Håvard; Colaresi, Michael; Jansen, Remco Bastiaan et al.

Part of International Interactions, p. 860-896, 2022

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Lessons From an Escalation Prediction Competition

Hegre, Håvard; Vesco, Paola; Colaresi, Michael

Part of International Interactions, p. 521-554, 2022

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Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation

Cusack, Jeremy J.; Bradfer-Lawrence, Tom; Baynham-Herd, Zachary; Castello y Tickell, Sofia et al.

Part of Conservation Letters, 2021

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Can We Predict Armed Conflict?: How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality

Hegre, Håvard; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Landsverk, Peder

Part of International Studies Quarterly, p. 660-668, 2021

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ViEWS(2020): Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System

Hegre, Håvard; Bell, Curtis; Colaresi, Michael; Croicu, Mihai et al.

Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 599-611, 2021

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The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis

Rød, Espen Geelmuyden; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Hegre, Håvard

Part of Public Choice, p. 87-111, 2020

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Synergies and Trade-Offs in Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals

Hegre, Håvard; Petrova, Kristina; von Uexkull, Nina

Part of Sustainability, 2020

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Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset

Hegre, Håvard; Croicu, Mihai; Eck, Kristine; Högbladh, Stina

Part of Research & Politics, p. 1-8, 2020

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Civil Society and the Democratic Peace

Hegre, Håvard; Bernhard, Michael; Teorell, Jan

Part of Journal of Conflict Resolution, p. 32-62, 2020

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ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system

Hegre, Håvard; Allansson, Marie; Basedau, Matthias; Colaresi, Michael et al.

Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 155-174, 2019

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Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations

Hegre, Håvard; Hultman, Lisa; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv

Part of Journal of Politics, p. 215-232, 2019

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Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap: A dynamic simulation approach

Hegre, Håvard; Mokleiv Nygard, Håvard; Flaten Raeder, Ranveig

Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 243-261, 2017

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Introduction: Forecasting in peace research

Hegre, Håvard; Metternich, Nils W.; Nygard, Havard Mokleiv; Wucherpfennig, Julian

Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 113-124, 2017

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Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.; Nordkvelle, Jonas et al.

Part of Environmental Research Letters, 2016

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Democratization and civil conflict

Arı, Barış; Skrede Gleditsch, Kristian; Hegre, Håvard; Wig, Tore

Part of APSA-CD, p. 4-7, 2016

Updated Data on Institutions and Elections 1960-2012: Presenting the IAEP dataset version 2.0

Wig, Tore; Hegre, Håvard; Patrick, Regan

Part of Research & Politics, 2015

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Governance and Conflict Relapse

Hegre, Håvard; Nygård, Håvard

Part of Journal of Conflict Resolution, p. 984-1016, 2015

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One effect to rule them all?: A comment on climate and conflict

Buhaug, H.; Nordkvelle, J.; Bernauer, T.; Böhmelt, T. et al.

Part of Climatic Change, p. 391-397, 2014

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Political Corruption and Institutional Stability

Fjelde, Hanne; Hegre, Håvard

Part of Studies in comparative international development, p. 267-299, 2014

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The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature

Vesco, Paola; Baliki, Ghassan; Brück, Tilman; Döring, Stefan et al.

Part of World Development, 2025

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Democracy and armed conflict

Hegre, Håvard

Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 159-172, 2014

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Introduction to peace and the sustainable development goals

Döring, Stefan; Petrova, Kristina; Hegre, Håvard

Part of The Elgar Companion to Peace and the Sustainable Development Goals, p. 1-11, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2026

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Global, state, and individual security in quantitative conflict research

Hegre, Håvard; Kristiansen, Idunn

Part of Transformations of Security Studies, p. 190-215, Routledge, 2016

Regime Type and Political Transition in Civil War

Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede; Hegre, Håvard

Part of Routledge Handbook of Civil Wars, p. 145-156, Routledge, 2013

Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations 2010-2035

Hegre, Håvard; Hultman, Lisa; Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard

Part of Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, p. 325-332, Springer, 2011

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The Elgar Companion to Peace and the Sustainable Development Goals

Döring, Stefan; Petrova, Kristina; Hegre, Håvard

Abbaye de Maredsous, 2026

Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025

Hegre, Håvard; Lindqvist-McGowan, Angelica; Dale, James; Croicu, Mihai et al.

2022

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Moving from Reaction to Action - Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel: A synthesis report from the Sahel Predictive Analytics project in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS)

Blocher, Julia; Destrijcker, Lucas; Fischer, Benjamin; Gleixner, Stephanie et al.

2022

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Forecasting fatalities

Hegre, Håvard; Akbari, Forogh; Croicu, Mihai; Dale, James et al.

2022

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Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel: Forecasts for November 2021–October 2024

Hegre, Håvard; Lindqvist-McGowan, Angelica; Vesco, Paola; Jansen, Remco et al.

2022

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Nio punkter för global fred (Nine Points for Global Peace)

Brosché, Johan; Brounéus, Karen; Fjelde, Hanne; Forsberg, Erika et al.

2015