Håvard Hegre

Revisiting "A Structural Theory of Imperialism"

Hegre, Håvard; Kim, Soo Yeon

Ingår i Journal of Global Security Studies, 2026

• DOI för Revisiting "A Structural Theory of Imperialism"

Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict

Randahl, David; Williams, Jonathan P.; Hegre, Håvard

Ingår i Political Analysis, s. 96-108, 2026

• DOI för Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict
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The Underreported Death Toll of Wars: A Probabilistic Reassessment From a Survey with UCDP Coders

Vesco, Paola; Randahl, David; Hegre, Håvard; Högbladh, Stina et al.

Ingår i Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2026

• DOI för The Underreported Death Toll of Wars: A Probabilistic Reassessment From a Survey with UCDP Coders

Forecasting electoral violence

Randahl, David; Leis, Maxine; Gåsste, Tim; Fjelde, Hanne et al.

Ingår i International Journal of Forecasting, s. 602-615, 2026

• DOI för Forecasting electoral violence
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The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty

Hegre, Håvard; Vesco, Paola; Colaresi, Michael; Vestby, Jonas et al.

Ingår i Journal of Peace Research, s. 2070-2087, 2025

• DOI för The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty
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Revisiting "A Structural Theory of Imperialism"

Hegre, Håvard; Kim, Soo Yeon

Ingår i Journal of Global Security Studies, 2026

• DOI för Revisiting "A Structural Theory of Imperialism"

Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict

Randahl, David; Williams, Jonathan P.; Hegre, Håvard

Ingår i Political Analysis, s. 96-108, 2026

• DOI för Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict
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The Underreported Death Toll of Wars: A Probabilistic Reassessment From a Survey with UCDP Coders

Vesco, Paola; Randahl, David; Hegre, Håvard; Högbladh, Stina et al.

Ingår i Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2026

• DOI för The Underreported Death Toll of Wars: A Probabilistic Reassessment From a Survey with UCDP Coders

Forecasting electoral violence

Randahl, David; Leis, Maxine; Gåsste, Tim; Fjelde, Hanne et al.

Ingår i International Journal of Forecasting, s. 602-615, 2026

• DOI för Forecasting electoral violence
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The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty

Hegre, Håvard; Vesco, Paola; Colaresi, Michael; Vestby, Jonas et al.

Ingår i Journal of Peace Research, s. 2070-2087, 2025

• DOI för The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty
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Predicting armed conflict using protest data

Geelmuyden Rød, Espen; Hegre, Håvard; Leis, Maxine

Ingår i Journal of Peace Research, s. 3-20, 2025

• DOI för Predicting armed conflict using protest data
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A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems

Geelmuyden Rød, Espen; Gåsste, Tim; Hegre, Håvard

Ingår i International Journal of Forecasting, s. 96-112, 2024

• DOI för A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems
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Early Warning and Predictive Analytic Systems in Conflict Contexts: Insights from the Field

Lynam, Timothy; Zapata, Mollie; Hegre, Håvard; Bell, Curtis et al.

Ingår i Civil Wars, s. 401-429, 2024

• DOI för Early Warning and Predictive Analytic Systems in Conflict Contexts: Insights from the Field

The 'conflict trap' reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways

Petrova, Kristina; Olafsdottir, Gudlaug; Hegre, Håvard; Gilmore, Elisabeth A.

Ingår i Environmental Research Letters, 2023

• DOI för The 'conflict trap' reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways
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United they stand: findings from an escalation prediction competition

Vesco, Paola; Hegre, Håvard; Colaresi, Michael; Jansen, Remco Bastiaan et al.

Ingår i International Interactions, s. 860-896, 2022

• DOI för United they stand: findings from an escalation prediction competition
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Lessons From an Escalation Prediction Competition

Hegre, Håvard; Vesco, Paola; Colaresi, Michael

Ingår i International Interactions, s. 521-554, 2022

• DOI för Lessons From an Escalation Prediction Competition
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Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation

Cusack, Jeremy J.; Bradfer-Lawrence, Tom; Baynham-Herd, Zachary; Castello y Tickell, Sofia et al.

Ingår i Conservation Letters, 2021

• DOI för Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation
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Can We Predict Armed Conflict?: How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality

Hegre, Håvard; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Landsverk, Peder

Ingår i International Studies Quarterly, s. 660-668, 2021

• DOI för Can We Predict Armed Conflict?: How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality
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ViEWS(2020): Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System

Hegre, Håvard; Bell, Curtis; Colaresi, Michael; Croicu, Mihai et al.

Ingår i Journal of Peace Research, s. 599-611, 2021

• DOI för ViEWS(2020): Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
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The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis

Rød, Espen Geelmuyden; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Hegre, Håvard

Ingår i Public Choice, s. 87-111, 2020

• DOI för The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis
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Synergies and Trade-Offs in Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals

Hegre, Håvard; Petrova, Kristina; von Uexkull, Nina

Ingår i Sustainability, 2020

• DOI för Synergies and Trade-Offs in Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals
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Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset

Hegre, Håvard; Croicu, Mihai; Eck, Kristine; Högbladh, Stina

Ingår i Research & Politics, s. 1-8, 2020

• DOI för Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset
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Civil Society and the Democratic Peace

Hegre, Håvard; Bernhard, Michael; Teorell, Jan

Ingår i Journal of Conflict Resolution, s. 32-62, 2020

• DOI för Civil Society and the Democratic Peace
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ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system

Hegre, Håvard; Allansson, Marie; Basedau, Matthias; Colaresi, Michael et al.

Ingår i Journal of Peace Research, s. 155-174, 2019

• DOI för ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system
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Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations

Hegre, Håvard; Hultman, Lisa; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv

Ingår i Journal of Politics, s. 215-232, 2019

• DOI för Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations

Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap: A dynamic simulation approach

Hegre, Håvard; Mokleiv Nygard, Håvard; Flaten Raeder, Ranveig

Ingår i Journal of Peace Research, s. 243-261, 2017

• DOI för Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap: A dynamic simulation approach
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Introduction: Forecasting in peace research

Hegre, Håvard; Metternich, Nils W.; Nygard, Havard Mokleiv; Wucherpfennig, Julian

Ingår i Journal of Peace Research, s. 113-124, 2017

• DOI för Introduction: Forecasting in peace research

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.; Nordkvelle, Jonas et al.

Ingår i Environmental Research Letters, 2016

• DOI för Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways
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Democratization and civil conflict

Arı, Barış; Skrede Gleditsch, Kristian; Hegre, Håvard; Wig, Tore

Ingår i APSA-CD, s. 4-7, 2016

Updated Data on Institutions and Elections 1960-2012: Presenting the IAEP dataset version 2.0

Wig, Tore; Hegre, Håvard; Patrick, Regan

Ingår i Research & Politics, 2015

• DOI för Updated Data on Institutions and Elections 1960-2012: Presenting the IAEP dataset version 2.0

Governance and Conflict Relapse

Hegre, Håvard; Nygård, Håvard

Ingår i Journal of Conflict Resolution, s. 984-1016, 2015

• DOI för Governance and Conflict Relapse

One effect to rule them all?: A comment on climate and conflict

Buhaug, H.; Nordkvelle, J.; Bernauer, T.; Böhmelt, T. et al.

Ingår i Climatic Change, s. 391-397, 2014

• DOI för One effect to rule them all?: A comment on climate and conflict

Political Corruption and Institutional Stability

Fjelde, Hanne; Hegre, Håvard

Ingår i Studies in comparative international development, s. 267-299, 2014

• DOI för Political Corruption and Institutional Stability

The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature

Vesco, Paola; Baliki, Ghassan; Brück, Tilman; Döring, Stefan et al.

Ingår i World Development, 2025

• DOI för The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
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Democracy and armed conflict

Hegre, Håvard

Ingår i Journal of Peace Research, s. 159-172, 2014

• DOI för Democracy and armed conflict

Global, state, and individual security in quantitative conflict research

Hegre, Håvard; Kristiansen, Idunn

Ingår i Transformations of Security Studies, s. 190-215, Routledge, 2016

Regime Type and Political Transition in Civil War

Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede; Hegre, Håvard

Ingår i Routledge Handbook of Civil Wars, s. 145-156, Routledge, 2013

Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations 2010-2035

Hegre, Håvard; Hultman, Lisa; Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard

Ingår i Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, s. 325-332, Springer, 2011

• DOI för Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations 2010-2035

Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025

Hegre, Håvard; Lindqvist-McGowan, Angelica; Dale, James; Croicu, Mihai et al.

2022

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Moving from Reaction to Action - Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel: A synthesis report from the Sahel Predictive Analytics project in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS)

Blocher, Julia; Destrijcker, Lucas; Fischer, Benjamin; Gleixner, Stephanie et al.

2022

• Ladda ner fulltext (pdf) av Moving from Reaction to Action - Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel: A synthesis report from the Sahel Predictive Analytics project in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (UNISS)

Forecasting fatalities

Hegre, Håvard; Akbari, Forogh; Croicu, Mihai; Dale, James et al.

2022

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Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel: Forecasts for November 2021–October 2024

Hegre, Håvard; Lindqvist-McGowan, Angelica; Vesco, Paola; Jansen, Remco et al.

2022

• Ladda ner fulltext (pdf) av Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel: Forecasts for November 2021–October 2024

Nio punkter för global fred (Nine Points for Global Peace)

Brosché, Johan; Brounéus, Karen; Fjelde, Hanne; Forsberg, Erika et al.

2015