“Heat waves and downpours in the Indo-Pacific region are increasing”

“During the last three decades, changes in the atmospheric circulation and in air currents have led to new circulation patterns that cause heat waves and heavy precipitation in the Indo-Pacific region (the tropical parts of the Indian Ocean, the western and central parts of the Pacific Ocean and the waters that connecting these two through Indonesia, ed. note). This is a factor that, in addition to rising global temperatures, may explain the increased number of extreme weather events in the region.”

How have you managed to identify and measure these circulation changes?

“We use climate data that combines remote sensing or satellite data, aerial and ground-based observations and climate models. Based on its data, we then look at which circulation patterns have disappeared and which have become more common.”

What are the changed air currents due to and what consequences have they had?

“We have shown in the study that the changed air currents are not due to natural climate variations such as El Niño or multidecadal (alternating warm and cool phases, ed. note), ocean-driven climate variation cycles. Our hypothesis is that they are a consequence of the human-caused climate changes, but we have not proven this hypothesis in the study, but we have only ruled out the role of natural climate variations. The changing air currents may explain the increased number of extreme weather events in the region.”

What could this mean for future climate and is it an analysis method that can be applied in other regions?

“If these changes continue in the future, they would lead to a higher than expected number of extreme weather events in the Indo-Pacific region. It is a method that can be used to reveal changes in weather patterns worldwide.”

Anneli Björkman