What happened next to the survivors of the tsunami disaster
The researchers have analysed large amounts of data on around 16,030 Swedish survivors of the tsunami disaster and some 530 fatalities. Photo: Getty Images
Sweden was severely affected by the tsunami disaster in Southeast Asia twenty years ago. Research can now reveal what happened to the Swedes who survived. The disaster has had a profound impact on their attitudes to life and society, but also on their income and education levels.
Around 530 Swedes perished during the tsunami disaster of 26 December 2004, but there was also a large group of survivors who returned home to Sweden. How were they affected by the traumatic experience?
To investigate this, researchers at Uppsala University have analysed large amounts of data on around 16,030 Swedish survivors of the tsunami disaster and some 530 fatalities. This data has been linked to the population register at Statistics Sweden (SCB) and combined with a survey.
“The combination of data sources allows us to study the effects of the tsunami on a wide range of social, health, economic and political outcomes. This unique opportunity opens the door to identifying what makes us resilient,” explains Lina M. Eriksson, researcher at the Department of Government.
Lina M. Eriksson, researcher at the Department of Government. Photo: Bildbyrån
The tsunami survivors were found to differ from other Swedes in the control group in several important respects.
Higher electoral participation
For example, the results suggest that exposure to disaster can influence political behaviour over the long term. Electoral participation increased among individuals exposed to the tsunami, who are roughly 2 percentage points more likely to vote in post-tsunami elections, compared to the control group.
This elevated participation may be due to dissatisfaction with the social democratic government's handling of the tsunami crisis, with those who were dissatisfied choosing to vote to demand accountability. But it can also be explained by what is known as post-traumatic growth, according to Eriksson.
“The experience of a major disaster can lead to both lifelong trauma and an increased awareness of society at large, which creates a greater engagement whereby the individual develops very positively, in this case through increased political participation.”
Higher income
In line with the theory of post-traumatic growth, the researchers found that the group of tsunami survivors chose to pursue education to a greater extent than the control group and now have higher incomes.
“We see a generally higher income in the affected group of SEK 15,000 per year, which is driven by a generally higher level of education of about 3 percentage points, as the increased income level follows a few years after the increased level of education.
In terms of health, there is no overall difference at the group level between the affected group and the control group 20 years later. At the individual level, however, this differs. Those who were hit hardest by the tsunami and received no social support have poorer mental health and well-being than those who were hit hard but received support from loved ones.
The social support provided during a major societal crisis is very important for an individual's long-term mental health and well-being after a traumatic event,” says Eriksson.
The 2004 tsunami disaster
On Boxing Day 2004, a 9.3 magnitude earthquake struck west of the island of Sumatra in the Indian Ocean – the second strongest earthquake ever measured. The quake triggered tsunami waves up to 30 metres high that slammed into islands in the Bay of Bengal, coastal areas of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives. They claimed lives as far away as Somalia on the west coast of Africa, 500 miles from the earthquake’s epicentre. One reason for the high death toll was the lack of a tsunami monitoring and warning system – something which is now in place.
No support from civil society
In general, the Swedish tsunami survivors feel that they received very good support from their loved ones, but virtually no support at all from civil society or the authorities and healthcare.
“There is still a serious lack of trust in politicians and authorities’ crisis preparedness and capacity to deal with natural disasters and extreme weather,” continues Eriksson.
Those who were severely affected by the tsunami have about 6 percentage points less confidence in the crisis management capacity of politicians compared to the control group. The corresponding result for public authorities is around 3 percentage points.
“Today, Sweden is investing heavily in crisis preparedness, civil defence and rearmament. It’s important to be aware that there are groups of people who have a long-term loss of confidence in the authorities’ crisis management capacity,” she notes.
Decreased trust in the Church of Sweden
A surprising finding is that the individuals impacted by the tsunami have lower levels of belief in God, less trust in the Church of Sweden and less participation in religious activities than the control group.
“For example, the likelihood of being a member of the Church of Sweden is about 6 percentage points lower among those affected by the tsunami compared to the control group.
the individuals impacted by the tsunami have lower levels of belief in God and less participation in religious activities than the control group. Photo: Getty Images
These are surprising results, as previous research shows the opposite – that people become more religious after a near-death experience or a traumatic event such as a natural disaster.
“Our results bring into question religion as a universal substitute when the state fails in its crisis management and suggest that there is something special about Sweden; probably a result of our secular society. In such a context, events such as the tsunami may reduce religiosity rather than increase it among individuals.”
Social networks important during crises
She notes there are several important lessons to be learnt, both in terms of individual and societal crisis preparedness.
“An important knowledge of contribution of the project is that the social networks each individual are very important for both the resilience of that individual and of society, as these constitute multifaceted interfaces that can be activated for social support when living through a crisis.
Sweden has strong community associations, where individuals’ involvement in various contexts links many different people and groups, such as sports clubs or housing associations.
“If there is a large-scale crisis at the societal level, these networks can be activated. Even if they are loose contacts, they can be very important in such a context. If we as a society are interested in creating resilience to crises and strengthening our civil defence, we need to create the conditions for a strong civil society,” concludes Eriksson.
Annica Hulth
Research project on tsunami survivors
- The project “Att leva som överlevande: en studie av tsunamiöverlevares politiska-, sociala- och ekonomiska integration” (“Living as a survivor: a study of the political, social and economic integration of tsunami survivors”) is a research project at Uppsala University and the Centre for Natural Disaster Studies (CNDS). The project has funding from the Swedish Research Council between 2022–2026.
- The researchers analyse anonymised data from existing registers, linked to data from the National Board of Health and Welfare and Statistics Sweden, combined with a survey. The aim is to understand how the Swedish survivors have fared as a group, and why some have fared better than others.
- Lina M. Eriksson is the research director, and postdoc Kalle Ekholm is involved in all parts of the project. Professor Kåre Vernby and Pehr Granqvist, both at Stockholm University, have also been involved in aspects of the project.
- The results are preliminary and have been partially peer-reviewed, as the project is ongoing and will only be completed in 2026.