Paola Vesco
Affiliated Visiting researcher at Department of Peace and Conflict Research
- E-mail:
- paola.vesco@pcr.uu.se
- Visiting address:
- Gamla Torget 3, 1tr
753 20 Uppsala - Postal address:
- Box 514
751 20 UPPSALA
Download contact information for Paola Vesco at Department of Peace and Conflict Research
- CV:
- Download CV
- ORCID:
- 0000-0002-0368-0633
Short presentation
Paola is a Post-Doctoral researcher at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, as part of the ViEWS project. Paola gained a PhD in Science and Management of Climate Change from Ca’ Foscari University of Venice and a Master’s Degree in International Sciences and Diplomatic Relations from the University of Trieste. Her research work revolves around the link between climate variability, food production and violence, with a special interest on forecasting.
Research
Paola's main research interests revolve around the relationship between climate variability, food production and conflict risk. Her current work focuses on conflict forecasting methods and applications, particularly in the context of the climate-conflict nexus.

Publications
Recent publications
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Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 2070-2087, 2025
- DOI for The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty
- Download full text (pdf) of The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty
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The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
Part of World Development, 2025
- DOI for The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
- Download full text (pdf) of The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
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Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025
2022
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United they stand: findings from an escalation prediction competition
Part of International Interactions, p. 860-896, 2022
- DOI for United they stand: findings from an escalation prediction competition
- Download full text (pdf) of United they stand: findings from an escalation prediction competition
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Lessons From an Escalation Prediction Competition
Part of International Interactions, p. 521-554, 2022
- DOI for Lessons From an Escalation Prediction Competition
- Download full text (pdf) of Lessons From an Escalation Prediction Competition
All publications
Articles in journal
-
Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 2070-2087, 2025
- DOI for The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty
- Download full text (pdf) of The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty
-
United they stand: findings from an escalation prediction competition
Part of International Interactions, p. 860-896, 2022
- DOI for United they stand: findings from an escalation prediction competition
- Download full text (pdf) of United they stand: findings from an escalation prediction competition
-
Lessons From an Escalation Prediction Competition
Part of International Interactions, p. 521-554, 2022
- DOI for Lessons From an Escalation Prediction Competition
- Download full text (pdf) of Lessons From an Escalation Prediction Competition
-
Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 98-113, 2021
- DOI for Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production
- Download full text (pdf) of Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production
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ViEWS(2020): Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 599-611, 2021
- DOI for ViEWS(2020): Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
- Download full text (pdf) of ViEWS(2020): Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
Articles, review/survey
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The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
Part of World Development, 2025
- DOI for The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
- Download full text (pdf) of The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
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Natural resources and conflict: A meta-analysis of the empirical literature
Part of Ecological Economics, 2020
Chapters in book
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Part of Routledge handbook of peace, security and development, p. 105-120, Routledge, 2020