Work and welfare in Sweden’s new era of migration – An interdisciplinary study on the influence of temporary residence permits on the behaviour of refugees and the responses of those in power

In a time of global mass mobility, the integration of migrants with a refugee background into host-societies remains a theoretically “wicked problem”. Two opposing ideas have guided the policy development in host-destinations within this area; one that emphasizes rights and another that emphasizes duties as prerequisites for full membership. In parallel, scholars have documented a restrictive policy trend globally and
in the Nordic countries in which an emphasis on duties have become the new norm (Hinnfors & Jungar, 2024). Within the restrictive policy, temporary residence permits have a key function, as they allow nation-states to deny membership to migrants not fulfilling certain criteria. Since July 2016, Sweden is an example of the restrictive trend, suddenly abandoning an inclusive approach to migration with the introduction of temporary residence permits (Dahlstedt & Neergaard, 2019).

Although a burgeoning number of studies have shown that the policy change in Sweden had a short-term effect on refugees’ participation in the labour market and studies (e.g., Jutvik and Robinson, 2020) and a negative impact on well-being (Jutvik and Holmqvist, 2025), ontemporary research lacks a few crucial elements. Most pressing, given the recent introduction of the policy change, studies have been limited to short-term analyses often relying on small samples (e.g., Elstrud, 2020; Lind et al., 2023). Following the contemporary political debate in Sweden, in which even more restrictive policies are discussed, there is a great need to increase knowledge about the effects of temporary permits. New analyses should further be done in larger migrant populations over
time to allow intersectional analyses with a particular focus on the effect among females and children, two groups that have been suggested to be vulnerable to the effects of temporary residence (Rädda Barnen, 2023).

Addressing these knowledge gaps, our project aims to map integration patterns within key societal spheres in the last decade and explore the effect of temporary residence permits on refugee participation. We ask the following research questions:

RQ1: How do temporary permits affect refugees’ integration into the labour market (income, labour sectors), educational system (study grants, educational development), and use of welfare systems?
RQ2: Do institutions/providers of welfare perceive that the change in migration policy altered their scope of responsibility to clients?
RQ3: How do temporary permits affect refugees’ perceptions about inclusion into the labour market, educational system, and the welfare system?

Data and methods

Our interdisciplinary project introduces and develops a unique database, consisting of register, survey and interview data. In an innovative design, the project identifies 20,000 individuals who, in 2016, was granted residence in Sweden. Half of this group (10,000) were granted a temporary resident permit and the other (10,000) were granted permanent permits, thus enabling a reliable comparison. We complement this data with in-depth interviews with stakeholders. We use a range of analytical methods in the form of descriptive statistics, OLS estimations, and quasi-experimental and thematic analyses.

Relevance

We address the tensions between the time restrictions embedded in our contemporary migration policies, and the development of a permanent, able, educated, and healthy labour force. To bridge the perspectives of policy makers and policy takers will give knowledge of utmost importance to facilitate integration and good welfare systems. By doings so our project has the ability to bring new knowledge about the unintended consequences of the now prevailing Swedish migration policy that is currently missing from the public and political debates.

Implementation

The project consists of 3 year-long work packages. Our costs are associated with salaries, fieldwork, data collection, dissemination, collaboration, and open access.

Project start

2026-01-01

Funding

Forte

Researchers

Emma Holmqvist, Researcher in Human Geography, IBF (Project Leader)
Kristoffer Jutvik, Associate Professor, Linköping University

Collaboration partners

Enheten för social hållbarhet, Samhällsbyggnadskontoret, Norrköpings kommun

Studieförbundet Sensus