Agenda, Monday 15 June (Stockholm)

Opening Remarks

by The Data for Peace Organizing Committee

Opening remarks and logistics for the in-person component of the conference.

• Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Director of Operations & Outreach – Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS), Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
• Branka Panic, Founder and Executive Director, AI for Peace

Post-Mortem, Reset or Business as Usual? Conflict Early Warning in a Changing World

by Global Public Policy Institute

Conflict early warning systems have made significant advances in accessibility, performance, and resolution in recent years, while still facing familiar challenges (data availability, interpretability, natural limits of predictive performance) as well as persistent external barriers (limited trust from decision-makers, weak connections to policy processes). However, recent developments have introduced more fundamental pressures: substantial budget cuts for conflict prevention, a shifting focus on interstate conflicts that existing models were not designed to capture, and rapid technological change driven by LLMs and AI agents. Particularly the AI developments are significantly reshaping what data collection, monitoring, and analysis can look like in practice, bringing both benefits and risks to contemporary warning systems. Amid these changes, this panel discussion asks whether today’s conflict forecasting models require a fundamental reset, while also reflecting on the successes and the shortcomings of past approaches.

• Katayoun Kishi, Head of Data Science, ACLED
• Guy Schvitz, Scientific Project Officer, European Commission, Joint Research Centre
• Ben Seimon, Lead Data Scientist, ConflictForecast / Fundació d'Economia Analítica (FEA)
• Micaela Wannefors, Doctoral Student, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Moderator: Paul Flachenecker, Research Associate, Global Public Policy Institute

Coffee/tea and light refreshments served on the 1st floor

Demo of the Risk Anticipation Data Hub

by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

The Risk Anticipation Datahub (RAD) is a CRAF'd- and Google-funded, AI-enabled, openly accessible platform that will enable users to directly access tens of thousands of indicators relevant to risk analysis. The platform will be a precious resource for anyone conducting anticipatory analysis - as it will provide three core elements: first an API that will provide access to curated, structured data; second a website that will feature visualizations and insights on global risks. and thirdly a chatbot function that will allow users to directly query the data, thanks to Google Data Commons. This event will be a live hands-on demo of RAD, to officially launch it to external users.

• Corli Pretorius, Head of the Research Analytics Learning and Innovation Team in the Crisis Bureau, UNDP

From Conflict Events to Security 'Signals': Using AI to Build a Search Engine for Peacebuilders

by Living Signals

Living Signals is a peace-tech startup that provides the missing data and analytical edge for translating early warning into early action. Its Co-Founder, Sami Murphy, will provide a live-demonstration of the platform and overview of how it overcomes conflict visibility biases in analysis. Drawing on her blended practitioner and research experience at the United Nations DPPA and Cambridge University, she’ll propose ‘signals intelligence’ as a new horizon for peacework.

Living Signals is an original dataset and AI-assisted analytical engine that captures a wider spectrum of security ‘signals’ beyond violent-conflict events. Its real-time data infrastructure systematically collects information on structural harms, slow emergencies, and positive peace indicators. Keeping a pulse on both risks and opportunities enables a shift from monitoring tipping points of conflict to understanding their underlying drivers – making the conditions for peace as visible as the conditions for crisis.

Living Signals uses AI and NLP to gather, filter and analyze thousands of signals from non-mainstream media sources to produce evidence-based analysis through simple language prompting.

• Sami Murphy, CEO & Co-Founder, Living Signals
• John Church, CTO & CO-Founder, Living Signals

AI-Assisted Conflict Event Coding: Fresh Insights and Hard Lessons from UCDP

by Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala University

In 2025, fatalities from organized violence reached the second highest level recorded since the Rwandan genocide in 1994. State-based conflicts hit a record high of 65, interstate conflicts doubled for the second consecutive year to eight, and 13 conflicts crossed the threshold for war. One-sided violence surged by 438% compared to the previous year. All these numbers come from a data program with nearly half a century of history - one that is now integrating AI into its workflow. This talk shares UCDP's early experience using AI for various steps of conflict event coding: where it helps and where it falls short. The answer is neither hype nor dismissal: AI is currently a useful assistant, but no substitute for the human judgment that makes conflict data trustworthy.

• Mert Can Yilmaz, Research Engineer, Uppsala University

What Works in Atrocity Prevention?

by The Norwegian Center for Holocaust and Minority Studies

What works in atrocity prevention? To approach this question, the atrocity prevention research field needs more systematic selection of cases where atrocities have been prevented, or atrocity risks have been reduced. This roundtable will explore how early warning datasets can be utilized for such case selection. Early warning datasets can predict atrocities with an impressive 97% accuracy. Qualitative studies help identify potential escalatory factors and trigger mechanisms. In contrast, systematic knowledge of the structures, processes and policies that reduce risks of mass atrocities and prevent them from happening is scarce. Success stories of prevention are often anecdotal, and a few cases are repeatedly highlighted. This roundtable will explore whether and how atrocity risk assessment datasets can be used to identify cases for in-depth study of risk-reduction and prevention. The roundtable will also shed light on how studies of risk reduction and prevention can bridge gaps between research and practice, and between quantitative and qualitative research in atrocity prevention.

• Lawrence Woocher, Research Director, Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
• Magnus Öberg, Senior Lecturer/Associate Professor, Director UCDP, Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University
• Håvard Hegre, Director of VIEWS, Research Professor, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
• Micaela Wannefors, Doctoral Student, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
• Gyda Marås Sindre, Associate Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of York

Moderator: Ellen Emilie Stensrud, Senior Researcher, The Norwegian Center for Holocaust and Minority Studies

Lunch served on the 1st floor.

Women Know First: Early Warning on Gender and Peace Backlash in Europe and Central Asia

by UN Women

This session explores how women-generated data can function not only as documentation, but as an early warning system for gender and peace backlash. Drawing on the experience of the UN Women Georgia Gender-Responsive Human Security Monitoring Tool, the discussion will examine how community-based monitoring, CSO networks, global datasets, and AI-enabled analysis can help identify emerging risks before they become structurally entrenched.

Bringing together perspectives from different stakeholders, the session will explore what constitutes early warning signals of backlash, why existing systems often fail to translate warning into action, and how different sources of data can be better connected to support anticipatory action.

The session will also reflect on the political and operational challenges of acting on difficult-to-measure issues such as women’s security, agency, and shrinking civic space. Through practical examples and discussion, participants will identify concrete entry points for strengthening coordinated responses and advancing data-informed approaches to preventing gender and peace setbacks across Europe and Central Asia.

• Tamar Lobjanidze, Programme Specialist, Women, Peace and Security (WPS), UN Women Georgia Country Office
• Louise Olsson, Senior Researcher, Peace Research Institute Oslo
• Petra Tötterman Andorff, Secretary General, The Kvinna till Kvinna Foundation
  
• Amanda Van Dort, Senior Director, Policy and Programs, PeacePays.ai
• Jannie Lilja, Head of Section, Acting Gender Envoy, Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs

Moderator:

• Rebeca Acin Rivera, Regional Humanitarian, DRR and Climate Change Adaptation Specialist, UN Women Europe and Central Asia Regional Office

Using Open-Source Data to Advance Demining Efforts

by The Carter Center

Explosive weapons used in conflicts often leave behind unexploded ordnance (UXO), posing long‑term risks well after fighting ends. These remnants cause loss of life or limb, hinder economic growth, degrade the environment, and delay recovery. Assessing contamination is first step in clearing UXO, yet field assessments are often impossible due to safety concerns, leading humanitarian mine action (HMA) organizations to rely on desk‑based studies. Leveraging its open‑source conflict dataset on Syria since 2012, the Carter Center developed a methodology to estimate UXO concentration and geolocate both the presence and likely number of unexploded munitions. Unlike earlier studies that mapped conflict events rather than specific munition use, this approach estimates munitions per event, providing a more accurate depiction of potential contamination levels. The data supports risk assessments, operational planning, and prioritization for HMA teams, while informing policymakers and donors about the scale of contamination. The methodology has already aided demining efforts in Syria, and the project now aims to automate and refine the approach to create a replicable tool for other conflicts.

• Hari Prasad, Program Associate, The Carter Center
• Abby Guy, Program Associate, The Carter Center

Pixels for Peace: Using AI and Earth Observation to Promote Planetary Security

by Planet Labs

You can't change what you can't see. Planet Labs' constellations of earth observation satellites provide greater global transparency into the triggers, impacts, and aftermath of conflict and strife globally. This talk will examine the power of earth observation and emerging AI to understand and address the risks of an increasingly insecure world.

This talk will also highlight Planet's new program on 'Planetary Security,' which was recently launched to help empower select partnerships and initiatives annually with data grants. Selected projects examine elements of the wider security nexus, including human security, the climate, nature, natural resource competition, and other thematic areas.

On a volatile and changing planet, the landscape of security risks is expanding, and our notion of peace and security must expand with it.

• Andrew Hassanali, Manager, Planetary Security and Ethics, Planet Labs

From Fragmentation to Foundation: Harmonizing Crisis Data at Scale

by Data Friendly Space

The crisis data ecosystem is rich in individual datasets but poor in shared foundations. High-quality climate and crisis data exists, yet remains fragmented across incompatible systems, limiting its collective value for forecasting, risk analysis, and anticipatory action.

The eMERGE Initiative, co-led by Data Friendly Space and the eMERGE consortium of world-leading scientific institutions, addresses this by harmonizing 250+ variables from 10+ sources into unified, open formats, transforming fragmented data into a shared, interoperable foundation that the entire crisis ecosystem can build on.

This session will present eMERGE's proof-of-concept results and its next phase: AI capabilities that automate cross-source data integration through semantic variable matching, accelerate new dataset onboarding from weeks to hours, and enable non-technical users to query integrated data in natural language.

eMERGE offers a collaborative model for reducing fragmentation in the data-for-peace ecosystem, lowering the barrier for new data providers to contribute and unlocking cross-domain analysis for faster and more effective crisis action.

• Debarati Guha-Sapir, eMERGE Consortium Lead; Director of the Université catholique de Louvain Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
  

Coffee/tea and light refreshments served on the 1st floor

Using Data to Inform Donor Policy and Operation in Somalia

by Tetra Tech International Development

Tetra Tech International Development delivers the UK’s Somalia Monitoring Programme III. As part of this programme, we developed a Donor Dashboard. This dashboard visually presents donor data of aid delivery in Somalia and Somaliland provided by the Donor Working Group.

This online platform with accompanying analysis of conflict, risk, aid spend and theme will provide a better understanding of how and where aid is contributing to Somalia's five-year National Development Plan (NDP). The goal is that this data will feed into greater knowledge of where / what was being delivered for aid, lead to greater coordination and coherence, and ultimately contribute to greater stability and peace.

This session will briefly detail the process followed, the analysis, and how it addressed the barriers to the policy and operational adoption of data-driven tools. It will also briefly outline some of the challenges of sense-making with donor data and cooperation. The session will offer visual images of the tool itself.

• Heidi Ober, Principal, Head of International Development for Evaluation & Research Practise, Tetra Tech international Development

Launch of INFORM Warning: Prioritising Future Crises for Early Action

by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

Humanitarian, development and peace actors increasingly have access to data and forecasts, yet struggle to translate these into timely, operational decisions. Early warning information is often fragmented, difficult to interpret, and poorly integrated into planning and prioritisation processes, leading to delayed or reactive responses.

This session marks the official launch of INFORM Warning — a new global system for forward-looking crisis risk analysis. It addresses the gap between insight and uptake through a scenario-based simulation focused on emerging crisis risks in the next 12 months.

Participants will use live polling to assess forecasts, prioritise risks and make decisions on anticipatory resource allocation and planning. INFORM Warning will be introduced as a data-driven innovation that transforms complex, multi-hazard forecasts into clear analysis of how risks may evolve. The session will explore how it can support decision-making in practice, from global prioritisation to country-level planning.

• Corli Pretorius, Head of Research, Analytics, Learning and Innovation Team, Crisis Bureau, United Nations Development Programme
• Karmen Poljansek, Scientific Coordinator - INFORM, European Commission Joint Research Centre, Disaster Risk Management Unit
• Sepehr Marzi, Data Scientist - INFORM, European Commission Joint Research Centre, Disaster Risk Management Unit
• Rado Kozma, Data Scientist - INFORM, European Commission Joint Research Centre, Disaster Risk Management Unit
• Isabelle De Schryver, Team Leader Evidence-Based Policy, Evaluations and Reporting, European Commission DG European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO)

Moderator: Andrew Thow, Project Lead - INFORM Warning, United Nations Development Programme

Discussant: Johannes Hengelbrock, Desk Officer for Crisis Early Warning, German Federal Foreign Office

Closing Remarks

by The Data for Peace Organizing Committee

Acknowledgements and closing remarks summarizing the first day of the 2026 Data for Peace Conference.

• Luisa Portugal, Program Officer, Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies, NYU Center on International Cooperation