Nordic Security: Deterrence and Risk Reduction
Professor Thomas Jonter, leader of the AMC Working Group “Nuclear Disarmament in a Nordic Perspective"
On 5-6 December, AMC and Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs co-organized a workshop in Uppsala. Fifteen international experts from four Nordic countries – Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland – and from the US, Germany, and UK explored the emerging strategic context of the Nordic subregion and the implications for deterrence and nuclear risks. Among the participants were also representatives from the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This first workshop is planned to be the first meeting in a series of workshops that is expected to run from October 2025 – December 2026.
The objective of the project
With much of the arms control architecture dismantled in recent years, there is an urgent need to assess common interests, redefine security priorities, and identify workable approaches to reduce nuclear dangers between NATO and Russia. In particular, the Arctic and Baltic sub-regions have become unformed strategic spaces, creating novel escalation risks. This project will map the impact of NATO membership on the security policy of Nordic states on issues such as Defence Cooperation Agreements (DCAs), military readiness for article 5 commitments, and examine prospects for nuclear risk reduction and arms control initiatives.
New Strategic Environment
The first workshop had two objectives: first, to explore the impact of the NATO expansion in the High North on deterrence and security policies, and second, to discuss prospects for arms control and confidence-building among the Nordic states. The first day dealt with the shifting world order and its impact on traditional frameworks for cooperation, evident in the absence of serious engagement between the US, NATO and Russia. It was noted that, as small states, a rules-based order and multilateralism are vital for Nordic states to thrive. The workshop proceeded from the basis that serious thinking and dialogue is required to mitigate, and ideally prevent, the implementation of policies and deployments which would increase tension, heighten risks of escalation, and provoke confrontation across the Nordic area.
Several key trends have rendered the Nordic region – including both the Arctic and Baltic arenas – as a critical interface between NATO and Russia. The increased threat felt from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, including of nuclear weapons use, was clearly stated as the primary driver of NATO accession of Sweden and Finland, in 2023 and 2024 respectively. Lately, more critical questions have arisen from NATO membership, not least the issue of the DCAs that the US signs bilaterally with NATO members. These agreements are oriented to provide greater defence readiness and bolster deterrence but clearly present a potential set of measures that would provoke consternation in Moscow given deployments of troops and infrastructure. At the same time, the statements and actions of the second Trump Administration have cast questions on the US commitment to European defence. Most obviously, the repeated assertions since 2019 on the US “acquiring” Greenland has left the Danish strategic community “reeling”. The broader current of US disengagement from the continent has provoked internal debate in each Nordic state on spending and procurement plans, as well as on building industrial capacity.
Prospects for Nordic security and disarmament policies
During the second day of the workshop, mainly prospects for risk reduction and nuclear arms control initiatives were discussed. A starting point for the discussion is the fact that the Nordic countries have a long history of successful cooperation. However, security has long been excluded from that collaboration. With all Nordic countries now part of NATO and evolving European security alternatives, defence and security cooperation has risen to the top of the agenda. One conclusion of the meeting was that increased attention should also be paid to a policy area that has historically garnered strong public support in the Nordics and cemented the region as a leading international actor in this area of security – nuclear disarmament diplomacy. “Nuclear disarmament” should be understood in a broad and pragmatic sense. While the goal remains the total elimination of all nuclear weapons, the road to realizing this vision is paved with different obstacles defined by the changing circumstances of domestic discourses, geopolitical contexts, technological advancements and many other factors. Therefore, other tools, including non-proliferation and arms control efforts, must be added to the toolbox to allow states to gradually realize the aim of general and total disarmament. In the present security situation, for instance, such disarmament efforts can contribute to lowering the nuclear-threat level in the Nordic region by emphasizing risk reduction and de-escalation initiatives related to no-first-use policies.
Today, political leaders in Europe are reconsidering US commitments and security guarantees, within and beyond NATO. Against this background, there are strong incentives for Nordic states to strengthen and expand their cooperation on foreign and security policy. A common Nordic strategy on nuclear disarmament, arms control and non-proliferation could help reduce direct nuclear risks in the region and de-escalate greater global tensions, leveraging the considerable normative power of Nordic diplomacy and technical capacity of Nordic industry. In this spirit, this first workshop has taken the first step to examine the historic engagement of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden in nuclear disarmament to help identify possible solutions for the future.
An extensive report from the workshop is available here. The report will be distributed to all Ministries of Foreign Affairs in the Nordic countries and hopefully it will stimulate discussions on how a Nordic cooperation in the nuclear arms control field can be promoted.
"A common Nordic strategy on nuclear disarmament, arms control and non-proliferation could help reduce direct nuclear risks in the region and de-escalate greater global tensions"