Assisting natural adaptation of forests to climate change: overcoming socio-political and ecological obstacles (ANAFOR)

Description

Climate policies are insufficient to avoid overshooting the Paris Accord’s 2°C target temperature increase. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to develop innovative approaches to adapt Sweden’s extensive and essential forest systems to the rapidly changing climate.

Using cutting-edge multidisciplinary methods in evidence synthesis, policy analysis, modelling and field experiments, our project will illuminate the way forward for assisted migration (AM) as a pathway to sustain, and to restore in case of degradation, the biodiversity and ecosystem services of forests.

AM is a novel adaptation approach of great promise. It involves human-assisted movement of species into regions of projected climate suitability, for which spatial and temporal (time-lag) obstacles currently prevent the success of unassisted establishment. Specifically, we will reveal where and under what conditions the targeted use of AM of eight southern tree species, and other plants, is best suited to overcoming climate change threats to natural and production forest systems, and identify the risks of, obstacles to, and opportunities for, integrating AM into governance frameworks.

Most importantly, we will for the first time provide forest stakeholders with cutting-edge guidance regarding how AM could best be implemented and applied in Sweden’s forests to maintain and restore ecosystem functionality, and to ensure that these systems continue to provide the goods and services that society depends on.

Malgorzata Blicharska (NRHU) leads Work Package 2 of the project: Social and policy barriers and opportunities for overcoming them.