11 trillion tonnes of ice have been lost from Greenland and Antarctica
A large part of the ice loss is due to glaciers speeding up and transporting more ice from land into the ocean, as at Jakobshavn Isbræ in Greenland (pictured). Photo: Johan Nilsson
Since the 1970s, 11 trillion tonnes of ice have been lost from Greenland and Antarctica. This has been shown by a new international study based on data from a range of satellite surveys. This is enough water to form a layer 25 metres thick if it had been spread out across the entire area of Sweden.
An international team of researchers has produced the most comprehensive picture to date of ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica. Between 1979 and 2023, these two ice sheets together lost 11,309 billion tonnes of ice, which corresponds to just over three centimetres of global sea-level rise.
“It can be difficult to get a sense of just how much ice we’re actually talking about. If the ice were spread out as water over the entire area of Sweden, it would have formed a layer 25 metres thick. The volume of water is equivalent to around 75 times the volume of Lake Vänern," says Johan Nilsson, Researcher in Physical Geography at Uppsala University, who contributed satellite-based data to the study.
Five decades of satellite data
The new international compilation is based on data from 27 satellite missions and reaches back as far as 1972 for Greenland and 1979 for Antarctica. The two major polar regions have been monitored up to 2023. The researchers have combined satellite measurements of ice height, the gravitational field and the speed at which the ice moves with regional climate models in order to distinguish between processes on the ice surface and changes in the way the ice moves. In total, the study is based on 42 independent estimates: 23 for Greenland and 19 for Antarctica.
“The amount of ice can both increase and decrease from one year to the next due to natural variations in the climate system. It is only when we track developments over several decades that the long-term trend becomes clear. Rather than individual research teams presenting their own separate figures, we have compiled the results into a single set of figures. This gives us much more reliable results that can improve future climate models and sea-level rise forecasts," says Nilsson.
Johan Nilsson Researcher at the Department of Earth Sciences. Photo: Malin Eivergård
The ice sheets are losing more and more ice
These long time series make it possible to place current developments in a historical context and show just how rapidly the situation has changed.
In Greenland, the ice sheet was close to balance during the 1970s, when the amount of snowfall roughly equalled the amount of ice that was lost. During the 1980s, the average loss was around 60 billion tonnes per year. Three decades later, in the 2010s, it had risen to 264 billion tonnes per year. Behind this trend lies a decade of consistently high summer temperatures, which caused significant melting.
In Antarctica, researchers are observing similar losses, from around 48 billion tonnes per year in the 1980s to 202 billion tonnes per year in the 2010s. The losses are greatest in West Antarctica, where relatively warm seawater is melting the floating ice shelves from below. An ice shelf is a large floating extension of ice that is connected to the ice sheet.
“You could compare the ice sheet to a tube of toothpaste, where the ice shelf acts much like the cap, holding back the ice behind it. When the ice shelf gets thinner, it’s like unscrewing the cap. Driven by its own weight, the ice can then move more quickly out towards the sea. As much as 84 per cent of the total ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica during this period was due to glaciers speeding up and transporting more ice from land out into the sea.”
In recent years, ice losses have been smaller. In East Antarctica, unusually heavy snowfall has temporarily increased the amount of ice, whilst cooler summers in Greenland have reduced the rate of melting. However, the researchers emphasise that changes over individual years should not be interpreted as a reversal of the long-term trend.
“The time series of measurements, spanning more than 50 years, make it possible to distinguish these variations from the long-term trend and to better understand how the ice sheets are changing over time,” says Nilsson.
During the 2010s, Greenland experienced substantial ice loss. This was partly due to recurring high summer temperatures, which caused extensive melting. Photo: Johan Nilsson
Sweden will be affected
The ice loss has contributed just over three centimetres to the rise in global sea levels. However, the effect of this will vary from place to place. In Sweden, post-glacial land rise is still ongoing, which affects how global sea-level rise is felt along our coasts. In southern Sweden, land uplift is minimal and rising sea levels therefore increase the risk of coastal flooding and erosion. In central and northern Sweden, land uplift is greater and continues to offset a large proportion of sea-level rise.
Where the ice is disappearing also has an impact on the extent to which sea levels are rising in Sweden. A loss of ice in Antarctica results in a greater rise in sea levels along Sweden’s coasts than an equivalent loss in Greenland. This is partly because the gravitational pull of the ice sheets affects the distribution of seawater across the Earth.
“What is happening in Greenland and Antarctica does not stay there. Three centimetres may not sound like much but that is just the contribution made by the ice sheets since 1979. As sea levels continue to rise, this will also have consequences for our Swedish coasts, particularly in southern Sweden,” says Nilsson.
For further information, please contact Johan Nilsson, Researcher in Physical Geography at the Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University.
Sandra Gunnarsson
Facts IMBIE:
The work forms part of IMBIE (Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise), an international research collaboration supported by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the US space agency NASA. IMBIE compares and combines independent estimates of the mass balance of ice sheets to produce an overall assessment. Among other things, IMBIE’s compilations of mass balance of the ice sheets are used as scientific evidence for the IPCC’s climate reports.
Read more
Article: Otosaka, I. N., et al. (2026). Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from the 1970s to 2023. Scientific Data, published on 16 September 2026. IMBIE Team. DOI: 10.1038/s41597-026-08088-0
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