Forecasting Methods and Causal Inference for the Social Sciences

7.5 credits

Syllabus, Master's level, 2FK065

Code
2FK065
Education cycle
Second cycle
Main field(s) of study and in-depth level
Peace and Conflict Studies A1N
Grading system
Pass with distinction (VG), Pass (G), Fail (U)
Finalised by
The Department Board, 24 October 2024
Responsible department
Department of Peace and Conflict Research

Entry requirements

Fulfilment of the requirements for a Bachelor's degree, from an internationally recognised university. A quantitative research methods course at Master's level of at least 7.5 credits, or 60 credits of statistics at the undergraduate level, or equivalent. Proficiency in English equivalent to the Swedish upper secondary course English 6.

Learning outcomes

After completion of this course the student is expected to be able to:

  • understand the principles of forecasting and causal inference
  • apply forecasting and causal inference methods to answer a research question and test theoretical arguments
  • be able to design, estimate, and interpret methods within forecasting and causal inference
  • be familiar with the different assumptions, goals, strengths, and weaknesses of different methods
  • independently solve assignments within allocated time
  • communicate in English, in writing and/or orally

Content

The course aims to deepen the knowledge of quantitative social science methodology that students have acquired during undergraduate studies. The aim is to develop students' ability to use forecasting and causal inference methods in order to answer a research question and test theoretical arguments. The course offers training in how to design, estimate, and interpret common methods within forecasting and causal inference. Key techniques covered include Monte Carlo simulation, randomization inference and prediction. There will be a focus on understanding the assumptions and goals of different methods and evaluating their strengths and weaknesses. To support students' practical application, the course includes the use of statistical software.

Instruction

Instruction will be through a mix of lectures and seminars. The language of instruction is English.   

Assessment

The examination consists of in-class participation and written examination.

If there are special reasons for doing so, an examiner may make an exception from the method of assessment indicated and allow a student to be assessed by another method. An example of special reasons might be a certificate regarding special pedagogical support from the University's disability coordinator.

Uppsala University does not accept cheating and plagiarism. Suspected incidents of cheating or plagiarism are reported to the Vice-Chancellor, which may issue a formal warning to the student or suspend the student from studies for a certain period.

No reading list found.

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