Sebastian van Baalen
Associate senior lecturer/Assistant Professor at Department of Peace and Conflict Research
- Mobile phone:
- +46 73 469 71 20
- E-mail:
- sebastian.van-baalen@pcr.uu.se
- Visiting address:
- Gamla Torget 3, 1tr
753 20 Uppsala - Postal address:
- Box 514
751 20 UPPSALA
Download contact information for Sebastian van Baalen at Department of Peace and Conflict Research
- ORCID:
- 0000-0003-3098-5587
Short presentation
Sebastian van Baalen is Associate Professor focusing on the dynamics of violence and governance in civil war, electoral violence, nonviolent action, and postwar violence. He is the principal investigator for the project "Opting out? Explaining the effectiveness of election boycotts", and works on several other projects. His research builds on a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, with experience working in Côte d'Ivoire. Previously, he worked as a freelance journalist.
Keywords
- south africa
- postwar violence
- legacies of civil war
- rebel governance
- ivory coast
- fieldwork
- election boycotts
Biography
- Docent in Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University (2024)
- PhD in Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University (2021)
- MSSc in Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University (2015)
- BA in Political Science, Uppsala University (2013). Minored in Peace and Conflict Research and Philosophy.
- Exchange studies at Stellenbosch University, South Africa (2012).
- Assistant editor-in-chief at Mänsklig Säkerhet (2015–2016)
Research
Sebastian is the principal investigator for "Opting out? Explaining the effectiveness of election boycotts", and a co-investigator in the projects "Crossing the Rubicon: The Dynamics of Restraint in Civil War" and "Alliances of Anarchy: Actor Constellations and Patterns of Electoral Violence".
Working papers are available on my personal website.
Blog Posts, Op-Eds and Popular Science Articles
Why communal conflict should be viewed as a wartime phenomenon. The Loop – ECPR’s Political Science Blog. 14 May 2024 (with Claudia Wiehler).
Local elections signal the death of coalition politics in Côte d’Ivoire. Democracy in Africa. 27 September 2023.
Därför riskerar kriget i Ukraina att bli långdraget [Why the war in Ukraine will be long]. Tranås Posten, 22 February 2023.
Hur slutar ett krig? [How does war end?]. Tranås Posten, 18 April 2022.
Can nonviolent civil resistance stop Putin? Political Violence @ a Glance. 11 March 2022 (with Isak Svensson).
Ickevåldsmotståndet som utmanar Putin [The nonviolent resistance challenging Putin]. Utrikesmagasinet, 9 March 2022 (with Isak Svensson).
Putins invasion är ett hot mot den rådande världsordningen [Putin’s invasion is a threat to the current global order]. Tranås Posten, 2 March 2022.
Elfenbenskusten: Risk för våld vid ifrågasatt val [Côte d’Ivoire: Risk of violence following contested election]. Global Bar Magazine, 28 October 2020 (with Jesper Bjarnesen).
The making of a dinosaur? Côte d’Ivoire’s 2020 elections. Democracy in Africa. 22 October 2020 (with Jesper Bjarnesen).
Will Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential election turn violent? Political Violence @ a Glance. 15 October 2020 (with Jesper Bjarnesen).
The nuts and bolts of a climate-conflict link in East Africa. New Security Beat. 19 March 2018 (with Malin Mobjörk).
Politisk maktkamp hotar freden i Elfenbenskusten [Political power struggle threatens Côte d’Ivoire’s peace]. Utrikesmagasinet. 15 December 2017.
Jasaffären i Botswana strider mot Sveriges mål [The Jas-deal with Botswana violates Sweden’s goals]. Svenska Dagbladet. 24 March 2017 (with Johan Brosché and Kristine Höglund).
Underskatta inte IS administrativa makt [Do not underestimate the Islamic State’s administrative power]. Mänsklig Säkerhet. 25 October 2016.
Sydafrikas moraliska förfall [South Africa’s moral decay]. Mänsklig Säkerhet. 2 November 2015.
Fredsarbete måste se till relationen mellan det lokala och nationella [Peacebuilding must consider the relationship between the local and national]. Mänsklig Säkerhet. 16 June 2015.
Media
Personal website
My personal website

Publications
Selection of publications
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Polls of Fear?: Electoral Violence, Incumbent Strength, and Voter Turnout in Côte d'Ivoire
Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 595-611, 2024
- DOI for Polls of Fear?: Electoral Violence, Incumbent Strength, and Voter Turnout in Côte d'Ivoire
- Download full text (pdf) of Polls of Fear?: Electoral Violence, Incumbent Strength, and Voter Turnout in Côte d'Ivoire
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Civilian Protest in Civil War: Insights from Côte d’Ivoire
Part of American Political Science Review, p. 815-830, 2024
- DOI for Civilian Protest in Civil War: Insights from Côte d’Ivoire
- Download full text (pdf) of Civilian Protest in Civil War: Insights from Côte d’Ivoire
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Keeping communal peace in the shadow of civil war: A natural experiment from Côte d’Ivoire
Part of World Development, 2024
- DOI for Keeping communal peace in the shadow of civil war: A natural experiment from Côte d’Ivoire
- Download full text (pdf) of Keeping communal peace in the shadow of civil war: A natural experiment from Côte d’Ivoire
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Behind enemy lines: State-insurgent cooperation on rebel governance in Côte d’Ivoire and Sri Lanka
Part of Small Wars & Insurgencies, p. 221-246, 2023
- DOI for Behind enemy lines: State-insurgent cooperation on rebel governance in Côte d’Ivoire and Sri Lanka
- Download full text (pdf) of Behind enemy lines: State-insurgent cooperation on rebel governance in Côte d’Ivoire and Sri Lanka
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Civil war recurrence and postwar violence: Toward an integrated research agenda
Part of European Journal of International Relations, p. 913-935, 2021
- DOI for Civil war recurrence and postwar violence: Toward an integrated research agenda
- Download full text (pdf) of Civil war recurrence and postwar violence: Toward an integrated research agenda
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Local Elites, Civil Resistance, and the Responsiveness of Rebel Governance in Côte d’Ivoire
Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 930-944, 2021
- DOI for Local Elites, Civil Resistance, and the Responsiveness of Rebel Governance in Côte d’Ivoire
- Download full text (pdf) of Local Elites, Civil Resistance, and the Responsiveness of Rebel Governance in Côte d’Ivoire
Recent publications
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Trials and Triangulations: Analyzing Aggregation Sensitivity in Event Data on Political Violence
Part of International Studies Quarterly, 2026
- DOI for Trials and Triangulations: Analyzing Aggregation Sensitivity in Event Data on Political Violence
- Download full text (pdf) of Trials and Triangulations: Analyzing Aggregation Sensitivity in Event Data on Political Violence
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Part of Journal of Peace Research, 2026
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Governing the Shadows: Territorial Control and State Making in Civil War
Part of Comparative Political Studies, p. 2095-2129, 2025
- DOI for Governing the Shadows: Territorial Control and State Making in Civil War
- Download full text (pdf) of Governing the Shadows: Territorial Control and State Making in Civil War
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Domains of dominance: Political territorial control and conflict-related violence in postwar Abidjan
Part of Political Geography, 2025
- DOI for Domains of dominance: Political territorial control and conflict-related violence in postwar Abidjan
- Download full text (pdf) of Domains of dominance: Political territorial control and conflict-related violence in postwar Abidjan
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Polls of Fear?: Electoral Violence, Incumbent Strength, and Voter Turnout in Côte d'Ivoire
Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 595-611, 2024
- DOI for Polls of Fear?: Electoral Violence, Incumbent Strength, and Voter Turnout in Côte d'Ivoire
- Download full text (pdf) of Polls of Fear?: Electoral Violence, Incumbent Strength, and Voter Turnout in Côte d'Ivoire
All publications
Articles in journal
-
Trials and Triangulations: Analyzing Aggregation Sensitivity in Event Data on Political Violence
Part of International Studies Quarterly, 2026
- DOI for Trials and Triangulations: Analyzing Aggregation Sensitivity in Event Data on Political Violence
- Download full text (pdf) of Trials and Triangulations: Analyzing Aggregation Sensitivity in Event Data on Political Violence
-
Part of Journal of Peace Research, 2026
-
Governing the Shadows: Territorial Control and State Making in Civil War
Part of Comparative Political Studies, p. 2095-2129, 2025
- DOI for Governing the Shadows: Territorial Control and State Making in Civil War
- Download full text (pdf) of Governing the Shadows: Territorial Control and State Making in Civil War
-
Domains of dominance: Political territorial control and conflict-related violence in postwar Abidjan
Part of Political Geography, 2025
- DOI for Domains of dominance: Political territorial control and conflict-related violence in postwar Abidjan
- Download full text (pdf) of Domains of dominance: Political territorial control and conflict-related violence in postwar Abidjan
-
Polls of Fear?: Electoral Violence, Incumbent Strength, and Voter Turnout in Côte d'Ivoire
Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 595-611, 2024
- DOI for Polls of Fear?: Electoral Violence, Incumbent Strength, and Voter Turnout in Côte d'Ivoire
- Download full text (pdf) of Polls of Fear?: Electoral Violence, Incumbent Strength, and Voter Turnout in Côte d'Ivoire
-
Civilian Protest in Civil War: Insights from Côte d’Ivoire
Part of American Political Science Review, p. 815-830, 2024
- DOI for Civilian Protest in Civil War: Insights from Côte d’Ivoire
- Download full text (pdf) of Civilian Protest in Civil War: Insights from Côte d’Ivoire
-
Keeping communal peace in the shadow of civil war: A natural experiment from Côte d’Ivoire
Part of World Development, 2024
- DOI for Keeping communal peace in the shadow of civil war: A natural experiment from Côte d’Ivoire
- Download full text (pdf) of Keeping communal peace in the shadow of civil war: A natural experiment from Côte d’Ivoire
-
Behind enemy lines: State-insurgent cooperation on rebel governance in Côte d’Ivoire and Sri Lanka
Part of Small Wars & Insurgencies, p. 221-246, 2023
- DOI for Behind enemy lines: State-insurgent cooperation on rebel governance in Côte d’Ivoire and Sri Lanka
- Download full text (pdf) of Behind enemy lines: State-insurgent cooperation on rebel governance in Côte d’Ivoire and Sri Lanka
-
Patterns of electoral violence during Côte d’Ivoire’s third-Term crisis
Part of African Affairs, p. 447-460, 2023
- DOI for Patterns of electoral violence during Côte d’Ivoire’s third-Term crisis
- Download full text (pdf) of Patterns of electoral violence during Côte d’Ivoire’s third-Term crisis
-
Civil war recurrence and postwar violence: Toward an integrated research agenda
Part of European Journal of International Relations, p. 913-935, 2021
- DOI for Civil war recurrence and postwar violence: Toward an integrated research agenda
- Download full text (pdf) of Civil war recurrence and postwar violence: Toward an integrated research agenda
-
Local Elites, Civil Resistance, and the Responsiveness of Rebel Governance in Côte d’Ivoire
Part of Journal of Peace Research, p. 930-944, 2021
- DOI for Local Elites, Civil Resistance, and the Responsiveness of Rebel Governance in Côte d’Ivoire
- Download full text (pdf) of Local Elites, Civil Resistance, and the Responsiveness of Rebel Governance in Côte d’Ivoire
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Part of Terrorism and Political Violence, p. 1168-1186, 2019
- DOI for “So, the Killings Continued”: Wartime Mobilization and Post-War Violence in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
- Download full text (pdf) of “So, the Killings Continued”: Wartime Mobilization and Post-War Violence in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
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"Google Wants to Know Your Location": The Ethical Challenges of Fieldwork in the Digital Age
Part of Research Ethics, p. 1-17, 2018
- DOI for "Google Wants to Know Your Location": The Ethical Challenges of Fieldwork in the Digital Age
- Download full text (pdf) of "Google Wants to Know Your Location": The Ethical Challenges of Fieldwork in the Digital Age
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Part of International Studies Review, p. 547-575, 2018
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The Microdynamics of Conflict Escalation: The Case of ANC-IFP Fighting in South Africa in 1990
Part of Pax et Bellum Journal, p. 14-20, 2014
Chapters in book
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Civilian Protest and Competitive State-building in Rebel-held Côte d’Ivoire
Part of Rebellious Riots, p. 94-127, Brill Academic Publishers, 2023
- DOI for Civilian Protest and Competitive State-building in Rebel-held Côte d’Ivoire
- Download full text (pdf) of Civilian Protest and Competitive State-building in Rebel-held Côte d’Ivoire
Monograph doctoral thesis
Reports
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Democratic Backsliding in Côte d'Ivoire: Legislative Elections Tighten Ouattara's Grip on Power
2021
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2020
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Reconceptualising Rebel Rule: The Responsiveness of Rebel Governance in Man, Côte d’Ivoire
2020
- DOI for Reconceptualising Rebel Rule: The Responsiveness of Rebel Governance in Man, Côte d’Ivoire
- Download full text (pdf) of Reconceptualising Rebel Rule: The Responsiveness of Rebel Governance in Man, Côte d’Ivoire
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Climate-Related Security Risks: Towards an Integrated Approach
2016
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A coming anarchy?: Pathways from climate change to violent conflict in East Africa
2016