Uppsala researchers following the US presidential election

The election has attracted great interest in Sweden, and both Adam Hjorthén and his colleague Dag Blanck have provided election campaign commentary in the media. The outcome of the election was uncertain right down to the wire. It was a toss-up between the Republicans and the Democrats, and either side had a chance of winning, according to Adam Hjorthén.

“That’s why it was no surprise that Trump won. But the way he won surprised me. There are still votes being counted, but he seems to have won the popular vote by quite a big margin. Not many people had predicted that.”

In other words, Trump’s popularity has increased. Across almost all of the USA, in the majority of electoral districts and demographic groups, there has been a shift towards Trump between the 2020 and the 2024 elections. This is the case in both rural and urban areas.

More studies needed

How this happened is currently the topic of debate by observers and analysts.

“More studies are needed to find the reasons behind it, but there seems to be a strong distrust of Democrats among Americans,” says Adam Hjorthén.

In part, this could be due to the economic situation. The US economy is doing very well in many ways, but low-income and lower middle-class people feel that they are worse off, for example because the cost of living has increased.

“Studies from several years ago show that Republican voters feel like they have been ‘left behind’. Many Americans seem to be drawn to Trump because they still see him as something of a political outsider.”

Kamala Harris campaigned on the idea that Trump was a threat to democracy, along with the issue of abortion rights. But that does not seem to have persuaded enough Democrats to get out and vote.

“One of Kamala Harris’s major challenges throughout her campaign was that she never really found a good way to navigate her connection to the Biden administration.”

Background as a historian

Adam Hjorthén came to Uppsala University four years ago, with a background as a historian working at Stockholm University and Freie Universität Berlin. In his research, he studies political polarisation in the United States from a cultural perspective.

He became interested in North American studies early in his research career. It is an international subject, and in Sweden it is only available at Uppsala University. SINAS offers courses in American politics, as well as American cultural life, history and broader societal issues.

“The media interest in this election this autumn has been enormous. Many people may think that there is a lot of research and teaching about the United States and American politics at Swedish universities. But that is not really the case. There are only two of us employed in a permanent position in North American Studies in Sweden,” says Adam Hjorthén.

Organising panel discussions

On 18 December, SINAS and the Swedish Institute of International Affairs invite you to a post-election analysis entitled “Four new years with Donald Trump”.

“We usually organise panel discussions and the like in connection with elections, both presidential and mid-term, and see collaboration as one of our key tasks. There is so much public interest in the United States in general, but also more specifically in American politics. We believe and hope that we have a role to play here.”

One question many people are asking is whether the new president poses a threat to democracy. This is a topic of debate within the research community, says Adam Hjorthén. While Donald Trump has done a lot to increase his power as president, there are checks and balances built into the system to protect the democratic institutions.

“The Constitution limits the power of the president in many ways. There is a strong separation of powers principle, with Congress and the Supreme Court balancing power. The states also have a great deal of autonomy that the President cannot easily influence.”

Threats to journalists and opponents

But the threats to democracy also involve what Trump says and does. For example, he encouraged his supporters to storm the Capitol on 6 January 2021.

“During the campaign, he certainly challenged the foundations of democracy, for example by signalling that he would not accept the election results. He also threatened journalists and political opponents.”

For example, he has said he will appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Joe Biden's “criminal behaviour”.

“If he makes good on what he promised during the campaign, it will undermine faith in American democracy and the democratic system. But sometimes the media can go a bit overboard in painting a picture of things being really bleak. It’s more complicated than that,” says Adam Hjorthén.

Annica Hulth